Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

Houser, Adrian

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.8% K%
Range
14.9% to 23.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Balanced starter Age 33 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
43
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
37
Arsenal6 metrics
59
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason4.27
ERA current pace4.02
ERA rolling p504.10
Observed weight67%
ERA
2.98 3.51 4.10 4.70 5.23
FIP
3.62 4.01 4.44 4.87 5.27
K%
14.7% 15.6% 16.7% 17.7% 18.6%
BB%
6.1% 6.7% 7.3% 8.0% 8.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.29
58
ERA4.02
51
BB%7.3%
73
K%16.2%
12
xwOBA allowed0.339
23
Barrel allowed8.6%
31
Fastball velo95.1
61
Hard-hit allowed42.7%
20
Whiff%16.1%
6
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-29
Changeup Stuff+99
31
Fastball Stuff+105
69
Mithrandir Stuff+105
74
Sinker Stuff+104
64
Curveball Stuff+100
25
Slider Stuff+109
94
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Houser, Adrian · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.339 2026-09-18: 0.3392026-09-19: 0.3392026-09-20: 0.3392026-09-21: 0.3392026-09-22: 0.3392026-09-23: 0.3392026-09-24: 0.3392026-09-25: 0.3392026-09-26: 0.3392026-09-27: 0.3392026-09-28: 0.3392026-09-29: 0.339 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Houser, Adrian · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Houser, Adrian · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 46.3%4-Seam Fastball: 21.0%Changeup: 15.6%Slider: 10.3%Curveball: 6.9% SI46% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 46%FF 21%CH 16%SL 10%CU 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Houser, Adrian · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 46% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 94.9 mphSI95 mph4-Seam Fastball: 21% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.7 mphFF96 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.3 mphCH85 mphSlider: 10% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 88.4 mphSL88 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 82.2 mphCU82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 45.4% 570 104 qualified
FB 19.4% 244 105 qualified
CH 17.3% 217 99 qualified
SL 10.9% 137 109 limited sample
CB 7.0% 88 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.317 vs 0.284 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 46%, Slider 16%, Changeup 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.46
K% Δ-0.007
Sample115.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings138.5----
Batters Faced600----
K%16.8%14.9% to 23.3%+/- 4.2%
BB%7.5%5.7% to 10.2%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%16.4%14.8% to 21.7%+/- 3.5%
HR/91.340.61 to 1.81+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3370.283 to 0.352+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.3% to 10.2%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.483.19 to 6.21+/- 1.51
FIP4.393.09 to 5.29+/- 1.10
WHIP1.4261.191 to 1.683+/- 0.246
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1563 career BF

xwOBA0.317
K%15.2%
BB%9.0%
Barrel7.2%
vs RHH

1759 career BF

xwOBA0.284
K%16.7%
BB%5.9%
Barrel6.2%