Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Holmes, Clay

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
19.2% K%
Range
15.5% to 25.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
55
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
50
Arsenal7 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason3.45
ERA current pace3.29
ERA rolling p503.35
Observed weight64%
ERA
2.25 2.77 3.35 3.93 4.45
FIP
3.05 3.41 3.81 4.22 4.58
K%
16.8% 17.9% 19.2% 20.5% 21.7%
BB%
7.8% 8.5% 9.3% 10.1% 10.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.19
74
ERA3.29
77
BB%10.0%
36 -18 vs proj
K%18.6%
26
xwOBA allowed0.303
62 +16 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.4%
91 +34 vs proj
Fastball velo93.0
27
Hard-hit allowed40.7%
33
Whiff%19.8%
26
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-29
Changeup Stuff+101
42
Mithrandir Stuff+102
46
Sinker Stuff+100
33
Slider Stuff+101
41
Curveball Stuff+103
52
Cutter Stuff+101
44
Fastball Stuff+97
17
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Holmes, Clay · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.303 2026-09-18: 0.3072026-09-19: 0.3042026-09-20: 0.3042026-09-21: 0.3042026-09-22: 0.3042026-09-23: 0.3042026-09-24: 0.3042026-09-25: 0.3042026-09-26: 0.3032026-09-27: 0.3032026-09-28: 0.3032026-09-29: 0.303 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Holmes, Clay · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Clay · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 48.9%Sweeper: 18.4%Changeup: 14.3%Cutter: 10.5%Curveball: 6.9%4-Seam Fastball: 1.1% SI49% · 93 mphprimary pitch SI 49%ST 18%CH 14%FC 11%CU 7%FF 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Clay · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 49% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 93.1 mphSI93 mphSweeper: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 81.2 mphST81 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 88.0 mphCH88 mphCutter: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 86.0 mphFC86 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 81.1 mphCU81 mph4-Seam Fastball: 1% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 92.9 mphFF93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 48.6% 737 100 qualified
SL 19.2% 291 101 qualified
CH 14.9% 226 101 qualified
FC 9.1% 138 101 limited sample
CB 7.2% 109 103 limited sample
FB 1.1% 17 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 41%, Sweeper 19%, Changeup 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.73
K% Δ-0.006
Sample101.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings72.7----
Batters Faced312----
K%19.2%15.5% to 25.9%+/- 5.2%
BB%8.5%6.3% to 11.4%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%20.8%18.2% to 26.8%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.110.30 to 1.57+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3160.263 to 0.327+/- 0.032
Barrel% Allowed7.0%4.4% to 9.4%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.022.11 to 5.10+/- 1.50
FIP4.152.75 to 4.84+/- 1.05
WHIP1.4121.071 to 1.569+/- 0.249
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1072 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%17.1%
BB%10.2%
Barrel6.3%
vs RHH

1270 career BF

xwOBA0.280
K%19.9%
BB%7.0%
Barrel5.8%