Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Ray, Robbie

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.9% K%
Range
18.7% to 29.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
41
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
43
Arsenal6 metrics
16
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.89
ERA current pace3.59
ERA rolling p503.66
Observed weight76%
ERA
2.17 2.88 3.66 4.45 5.15
FIP
3.30 3.88 4.52 5.16 5.74
K%
19.4% 20.3% 21.4% 22.4% 23.3%
BB%
9.4% 10.0% 10.7% 11.4% 12.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
50
ERA3.59
67
BB%11.6%
21 -30 vs proj
K%20.8%
41 -24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.335
27 -19 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.9%
42
Fastball velo93.0
27
Hard-hit allowed37.0%
61
Whiff%22.9%
52
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+99
31
Fastball Stuff+99
28
Mithrandir Stuff+96
13
Slider Stuff+94
8
Curveball Stuff+98
9
Sinker Stuff+92
6
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ray, Robbie · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.335 2026-09-13: 0.3362026-09-14: 0.3362026-09-18: 0.3342026-09-19: 0.3342026-09-20: 0.3342026-09-21: 0.3342026-09-22: 0.3342026-09-23: 0.3342026-09-24: 0.3352026-09-25: 0.3352026-09-26: 0.3352026-09-27: 0.335 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ray, Robbie · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ray, Robbie · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.5%Slider: 23.8%Changeup: 18.0%Sinker: 14.5%Knuckle Curve: 11.2% FF33% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 33%SL 24%CH 18%SI 15%KC 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ray, Robbie · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.2 mphFF93 mphSlider: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 86.1 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 86.2 mphCH86 mphSinker: 15% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.6 mphSI93 mphKnuckle Curve: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 79.6 mphKC80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 37.4% 661 99 qualified
SL 24.9% 440 94 qualified
CH 18.9% 334 99 qualified
CB 10.1% 179 98 limited sample
SI 8.6% 152 92 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 52%, Slider 23%, Changeup 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.55
K% Δ-0.032
Sample171.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings138.0----
Batters Faced585----
K%23.9%18.7% to 29.5%+/- 5.4%
BB%8.7%5.7% to 11.6%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%24.4%21.1% to 29.9%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.370.75 to 2.06+/- 0.66
xwOBA Against0.3160.258 to 0.354+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed8.9%4.9% to 12.5%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.142.27 to 6.03+/- 1.88
FIP4.222.98 to 6.05+/- 1.53
WHIP1.2370.958 to 1.456+/- 0.249
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1343 career BF

xwOBA0.267
K%21.7%
BB%8.1%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

4869 career BF

xwOBA0.285
K%22.3%
BB%8.6%
Barrel9.4%