Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Boyd, Matthew

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.2% K%
Range
16.8% to 26.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Balanced starter Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
48
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
42
Arsenal6 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.91
ERA current pace3.91
ERA rolling p503.91
Observed weight70%
ERA
2.78 3.32 3.91 4.51 5.04
FIP
3.67 3.96 4.28 4.61 4.90
K%
17.4% 18.3% 19.4% 20.5% 21.5%
BB%
5.9% 6.5% 7.1% 7.7% 8.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.28
59
ERA3.91
55
BB%7.5%
71
K%18.5%
25 -19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.330
31
Barrel allowed8.3%
36
Fastball velo92.8
24
Hard-hit allowed39.1%
45
Whiff%20.8%
34
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+107
85
Fastball Stuff+101
41
Mithrandir Stuff+102
45
Curveball Stuff+103
66
Sinker Stuff+97
17
Slider Stuff+99
29
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Boyd, Matthew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.330 2026-09-13: 0.3312026-09-14: 0.3312026-09-18: 0.3312026-09-19: 0.3312026-09-20: 0.3312026-09-21: 0.3322026-09-22: 0.3322026-09-23: 0.3322026-09-24: 0.3322026-09-25: 0.3322026-09-26: 0.3302026-09-27: 0.330 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Boyd, Matthew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Boyd, Matthew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.1%Changeup: 28.0%Slider: 14.2%Curveball: 12.4%Sinker: 1.4% FF44% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 44%CH 28%SL 14%CU 12%SI 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Boyd, Matthew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.8 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 28% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 78.8 mphCH79 mphSlider: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 83.2 mphSL83 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 73.1 mphCU73 mphSinker: 1% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.9 mphSI92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.9% 479 101 qualified
CH 29.0% 310 107 qualified
SL 12.5% 133 99 limited sample
CB 11.8% 126 103 limited sample
SI 1.9% 20 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.260 vs 0.287 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Changeup 23%, Slider 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.17
K% Δ-0.028
Sample128.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings139.7----
Batters Faced582----
K%21.2%16.8% to 26.2%+/- 4.7%
BB%6.5%4.9% to 8.8%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%22.2%18.6% to 26.3%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.280.76 to 1.92+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3170.280 to 0.328+/- 0.024
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.7% to 12.0%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.082.44 to 5.42+/- 1.49
FIP4.063.23 to 4.86+/- 0.82
WHIP1.3291.066 to 1.482+/- 0.208
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1043 career BF

xwOBA0.260
K%20.9%
BB%5.5%
Barrel6.3%
vs RHH

3775 career BF

xwOBA0.287
K%19.1%
BB%6.4%
Barrel9.4%