Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Quintana, Jose

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
15.5% K%
Range
11.9% to 21.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Balanced starter Age 37 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
20
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
23
Arsenal6 metrics
20
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason4.60
ERA current pace5.40
ERA rolling p504.99
Observed weight49%
ERA
3.73 4.33 4.99 5.66 6.26
FIP
4.56 4.95 5.39 5.83 6.22
K%
10.8% 12.1% 13.6% 15.0% 16.4%
BB%
6.7% 7.5% 8.4% 9.3% 10.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.54
18
ERA5.40
19
BB%8.7%
52
K%11.7%
1
xwOBA allowed0.357
11
Barrel allowed10.5%
10 -26 vs proj
Fastball velo89.8
3
Hard-hit allowed36.5%
66
Whiff%20.0%
26 +17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-29
Fastball Stuff+100
35
Mithrandir Stuff+97
15
Changeup Stuff+94
13
Curveball Stuff+101
34
Sinker Stuff+96
13
Slider Stuff+93
8
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Quintana, Jose · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.357 2026-09-18: 0.3432026-09-19: 0.3432026-09-20: 0.3432026-09-21: 0.3592026-09-22: 0.3592026-09-23: 0.3592026-09-24: 0.3592026-09-25: 0.3592026-09-26: 0.3592026-09-27: 0.3572026-09-28: 0.3572026-09-29: 0.357 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Quintana, Jose · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Quintana, Jose · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 29.6%Sinker: 20.3%Changeup: 19.7%Curveball: 15.3%Slurve: 15.1% FF30% · 90 mphprimary pitch FF 30%SI 20%CH 20%CU 15%SV 15% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Quintana, Jose · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 30% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 89.8 mphFF90 mphSinker: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 89.8 mphSI90 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.0 mphCH85 mphCurveball: 15% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 78.9 mphCU79 mphSlurve: 15% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 80.0 mphSV80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 28.6% 213 100 qualified
CH 21.0% 157 94 limited sample
SI 19.7% 147 96 limited sample
SL 15.5% 116 93 limited sample
CB 15.1% 113 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.302 vs 0.330 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 44%, Changeup 22%, Curveball 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.36
K% Δ-0.038
Sample51.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings74.8----
Batters Faced320----
K%15.5%11.9% to 21.5%+/- 4.8%
BB%9.0%6.6% to 11.6%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%17.2%14.7% to 22.3%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.690.99 to 2.15+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3880.321 to 0.415+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed8.3%6.3% to 11.4%+/- 2.6%
ERA5.042.68 to 6.24+/- 1.78
FIP5.163.90 to 6.25+/- 1.17
WHIP1.5071.156 to 1.694+/- 0.269
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1515 career BF

xwOBA0.302
K%18.4%
BB%8.2%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

5421 career BF

xwOBA0.330
K%14.9%
BB%8.9%
Barrel8.1%