Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Stock, Robert

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.1% K%
Range
0.2% to 19.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Volatile contact Age 37 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
20
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
36
Arsenal6 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason3.93
ERA current pace5.93
ERA rolling p504.70
Observed weight38%
ERA
2.59 3.59 4.70 5.80 6.80
FIP
2.89 3.53 4.25 4.96 5.60
K%
9.4% 12.3% 15.4% 18.6% 21.4%
BB%
5.6% 7.5% 9.7% 11.8% 13.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.79
4
ERA5.93
12
BB%10.1%
34
K%19.6%
33
xwOBA allowed0.343
19 -60 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.1%
39 -20 vs proj
Fastball velo95.0
58
Hard-hit allowed36.4%
66
Whiff%23.3%
56
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-29
Mithrandir Stuff+104
65
Changeup Stuff+90
5
Cutter Stuff+103
66
Fastball Stuff+105
74
Sinker Stuff+102
48
Slider Stuff+104
67
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Stock, Robert · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.343 2026-09-18: 0.3432026-09-19: 0.3432026-09-20: 0.3432026-09-21: 0.3432026-09-22: 0.3432026-09-23: 0.3432026-09-24: 0.3432026-09-25: 0.3432026-09-26: 0.3432026-09-27: 0.3432026-09-28: 0.3432026-09-29: 0.343 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Stock, Robert · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Stock, Robert · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 31.4%4-Seam Fastball: 23.9%Sinker: 22.3%Sweeper: 12.1%Changeup: 8.6%Knuckle Curve: 1.6% FC31% · 91 mphprimary pitch FC 31%FF 24%SI 22%ST 12%CH 9%KC 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Stock, Robert · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 31% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.1 mphFC91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 95.8 mphFF96 mphSinker: 22% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 94.1 mphSI94 mphSweeper: 12% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 80.9 mphST81 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 80.9 mphCH81 mphKnuckle Curve: 2% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 57″ drop, 79.5 mphKC80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 31.1% 174 103 limited sample
FB 24.3% 136 105 limited sample
SI 22.3% 125 102 limited sample
SL 12.7% 71 104 limited sample
CH 8.6% 48 90 limited sample
CB 1.1% 6 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 44%, Sinker 32%, 4-Seam Fastball 10%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.89
K% Δ+0.005
Sample29.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings29.2----
Batters Faced139----
K%19.1%0.2% to 19.0%+/- 9.4%
BB%9.9%4.2% to 16.7%+/- 6.2%
Whiff%22.8%3.0% to 24.5%+/- 10.7%
HR/91.450.00 to 2.11+/- 1.06
xwOBA Against0.2880.083 to 0.373+/- 0.145
Barrel% Allowed6.9%0.1% to 9.7%+/- 4.8%
ERA4.040.18 to 5.97+/- 2.90
FIP4.202.61 to 6.35+/- 1.87
WHIP1.3000.761 to 1.612+/- 0.425
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

176 career BF

xwOBA0.120
K%1.9%
BB%8.9%
Barrel2.1%
vs RHH

197 career BF

xwOBA0.113
K%2.1%
BB%6.2%
Barrel2.1%