Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TB · 2026
Williamson, Ben
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TB
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
27
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.294 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.287 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.290 |
| Observed weight | 58% |
xwOBA
0.264
0.276
0.290
0.303
0.316
wOBA
0.284
0.301
0.319
0.337
0.353
ISO
0.074
0.090
0.108
0.126
0.142
K%
16.6%
17.9%
19.3%
20.7%
22.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.3%
5
-27 vs proj
Exit velocity86.7
37
Hard-hit%34.3%
32
-20 vs proj
xBA0.312
41
xSLG0.411
17
xwOBA0.287
32
-30 vs proj
BB%7.9%
42
+23 vs proj
Bat speed67.2
23
K%19.4%
71
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 2B
70
Arm Strength89.7 · 2B
70
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 2B
14
Range Runs-3.1 · 2B
23
Baserunning · percentile strip
SB Success Rate85.7% · 2B
67
Sprint Speed28.1 · 2B
68
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.2% · rebadged research
54
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.2% · rebadged research
6
Correct Decisions60.5% · rebadged research
8
Mithrandir Stuff+86
7
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · borderline
84
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
76
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.261 · validated thin sample
88
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.338 · insufficient sample
21
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337 · validated
52
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374 · validated
18
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
23
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
130 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.026 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.006 |
| Sample | 304 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 349 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.313 | 0.267 to 0.348 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.112 | 0.045 to 0.196 | +/- 0.076 |
| Barrel% | 3.6% | 1.2% to 6.0% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.6% | 33.5% to 49.1% | +/- 7.8% |
| K% | 21.5% | 16.3% to 26.3% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 5.6% | 2.8% to 9.3% | +/- 3.2% |
| BABIP | 0.317 | 0.263 to 0.360 | +/- 0.049 |
vs LHP
96 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.157 |
| K% | 11.3% |
| BB% | 3.8% |
| Barrel | 1.7% |
vs RHP
206 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.149 |
| K% | 12.2% |
| BB% | 2.8% |
| Barrel | 1.5% |