Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 28 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026

Roden, Alan

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.284 xwOBA
Range
0.193 to 0.338
Live Δ
yes
Team MIN Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
62
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
64
Defense4 metrics
33
Speed1 metrics
41
Plate skills10 metrics
30
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28
xwOBA preseason0.266
xwOBA current pace0.361
xwOBA rolling p500.297
Observed weight33%
xwOBA
0.245 0.270 0.297 0.325 0.349
wOBA
0.369 0.398 0.430 0.462 0.491
ISO
0.053 0.082 0.114 0.146 0.175
K%
12.5% 15.2% 18.2% 21.3% 24.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.6%
47 +28 vs proj
Exit velocity86.3
32
Hard-hit%42.5%
70 +39 vs proj
xBA0.350
83
xSLG0.494
48
xwOBA0.361
95 +65 vs proj
BB%13.0%
92 +63 vs proj
Bat speed66.2
13
K%13.0%
95 +27 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.0 · RF
27
Arm Strength89.2 · RF
17
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
50
Range Runs-1.0 · RF
39
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.1 · RF
41
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-28
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.7% · rebadged research
42
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.1% · rebadged research
9
Correct Decisions62.3% · rebadged research
17
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.314 · borderline
15
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
54
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289 · validated thin sample
27
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · insufficient sample
32
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329 · validated
70
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.380 · validated
12
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
19
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Roden, Alan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.361 2026-09-14: 0.3422026-09-18: 0.3422026-09-19: 0.3422026-09-20: 0.3422026-09-21: 0.3452026-09-22: 0.3492026-09-23: 0.3492026-09-24: 0.3512026-09-25: 0.3512026-09-26: 0.3512026-09-27: 0.3612026-09-28: 0.361 2026-09-14 2026-09-28 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Alan Roden's tools (82) outpace production (80) by 2 points. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Passive In-Zone Approach
Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

40 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Roden, Alan · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 18% of plotted batted ballsPull 18%Center field third: 70% of plotted batted ballsCenter 70%Right field third: 12% of plotted batted ballsOppo 12% LF 339 CF 403 RF 328 2026-03-15 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 27.02026-03-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.4 / LA 40.02026-03-15 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA 0.02026-03-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 32.02026-03-16 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 66.0 / LA -47.02026-03-19 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 73.9 / LA 16.02026-03-19 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 36.02026-03-21 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 95.4 / LA 4.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 40.02026-03-22 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -5.02026-07-31 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 70.1 / LA -59.02026-07-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.9 / LA 39.02026-08-02 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 1.02026-08-02 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 69.1 / LA 21.02026-08-04 · sac fly · CH · fly_ball · EV 71.8 / LA 32.02026-08-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.4 / LA 40.02026-08-08 · field out · FF · popup · EV 59.1 / LA 52.02026-08-11 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.1 / LA 51.02026-08-11 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 96.5 / LA -31.02026-08-11 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 73.6 / LA -11.02026-08-17 · sac bunt · CU · ground_ball · EV 20.7 / LA -26.02026-08-17 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 107.3 / LA 3.02026-08-17 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 102.2 / LA 12.02026-08-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 77.3 / LA -30.02026-08-23 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.5 / LA 7.02026-08-23 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 76.3 / LA 6.02026-08-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 71.0 / LA 9.02026-08-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 35.02026-08-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 29.8 / LA -41.02026-09-20 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 95.7 / LA 10.02026-09-20 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 95.2 / LA 14.02026-09-20 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 32.02026-09-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.0 / LA -10.02026-09-21 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 59.4 / LA -23.02026-09-21 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 7.02026-09-23 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 69.1 / LA 16.02026-09-23 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 82.5 / LA 5.02026-09-23 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 54.4 / LA 28.02026-09-26 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 11.02026-09-26 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 31.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Roden, Alan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 49%49%Chase: 25%25%Whiff: 15%15%Zone contact: 94%94%Contact: 85%85%Hard hit: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.077
wOBA Δ+0.146
Sample108 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances283----
Home Runs7----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2840.193 to 0.338+/- 0.072
ISO0.1250.034 to 0.212+/- 0.089
Barrel%2.7%0.9% to 5.6%+/- 2.4%
Hard-Hit%34.4%21.5% to 43.6%+/- 11.1%
K%19.7%15.5% to 32.1%+/- 8.3%
BB%6.7%1.8% to 9.6%+/- 3.9%
BABIP0.2860.213 to 0.342+/- 0.065
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

30 career PA

xwOBA0.095
K%10.1%
BB%2.5%
Barrel0.9%
vs RHP

143 career PA

xwOBA0.094
K%9.9%
BB%2.4%
Barrel0.9%