Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIA · 2026
Pauley, Graham
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
16
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.301 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.244 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.277 |
| Observed weight | 42% |
xwOBA
0.244
0.259
0.277
0.294
0.310
wOBA
0.257
0.279
0.304
0.328
0.350
ISO
0.140
0.159
0.180
0.201
0.219
K%
19.6%
21.5%
23.7%
25.8%
27.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.4%
43
-21 vs proj
Exit velocity83.6
10
Hard-hit%24.8%
7
-50 vs proj
xBA0.262
8
xSLG0.426
23
xwOBA0.244
7
-59 vs proj
BB%6.2%
25
-38 vs proj
Bat speed69.4
45
K%24.4%
42
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength80.6 · 3B
5
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 3B
73
Range Runs0.5 · 3B
60
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.5 · 3B
26
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.0% · rebadged research
43
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.1% · rebadged research
30
Correct Decisions64.0% · rebadged research
28
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · borderline
78
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · insufficient sample
78
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282 · validated thin sample
41
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.305 · insufficient sample
90
Resists FastballwOBA 0.347 · validated
31
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
48
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
34
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
98 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.072 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.012 |
| Sample | 160 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 299 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.316 | 0.240 to 0.335 | +/- 0.047 |
| ISO | 0.189 | 0.108 to 0.234 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 5.7% | 1.8% to 7.1% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.6% | 28.5% to 47.4% | +/- 9.5% |
| K% | 24.5% | 16.5% to 28.9% | +/- 6.2% |
| BB% | 9.5% | 5.4% to 11.8% | +/- 3.2% |
| BABIP | 0.278 | 0.229 to 0.324 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
30 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.136 |
| K% | 10.4% |
| BB% | 5.1% |
| Barrel | 1.8% |
vs RHP
196 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.141 |
| K% | 10.7% |
| BB% | 5.2% |
| Barrel | 2.1% |