Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 28 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026

Kjerstad, Heston

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.304 xwOBA
Range
0.247 to 0.354
Live Δ
--
Team BAL Archetype Balanced regular Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
37
Offense
percentile
Defense1 metrics
69
Plate skills9 metrics
34
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28
xwOBA preseason0.305
xwOBA current pace0.205
xwOBA rolling p500.295
Observed weight11%
xwOBA
0.246 0.269 0.295 0.321 0.344
wOBA
0.106 0.154 0.208 0.262 0.310
ISO
0.081 0.107 0.136 0.165 0.191
K%
23.5% 26.1% 29.0% 31.8% 34.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · RF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
69 Regression applied
Range Runs-0.0 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.8 · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-28
Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.4% · rebadged research
5
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.2% · rebadged research
8
Correct Decisions61.5% · rebadged research
12
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
56
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
62
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.286 · validated thin sample
35
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
48
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348 · validated
73
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline82
4
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

11 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Kjerstad, Heston · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 9% of plotted batted ballsPull 9%Center field third: 73% of plotted batted ballsCenter 73%Right field third: 18% of plotted batted ballsOppo 18% LF 333 CF 400 RF 318 2026-03-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.5 / LA 29.02026-03-19 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 47.6 / LA 24.02026-03-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 74.7 / LA -15.02026-09-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 76.7 / LA 45.02026-09-02 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 83.0 / LA 37.02026-09-05 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 95.0 / LA -8.02026-09-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 85.9 / LA 14.02026-09-05 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 84.3 / LA 26.02026-09-09 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 82.3 / LA 6.02026-09-11 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 97.2 / LA 13.02026-09-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 66.7 / LA -30.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Kjerstad, Heston · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 45%45%Chase: 38%38%Whiff: 31%31%Zone contact: 84%84%Contact: 69%69%Hard hit: 15%15% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
hitter
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances305----
Home Runs9----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3040.247 to 0.354+/- 0.054
ISO0.1630.084 to 0.207+/- 0.061
Barrel%5.0%2.1% to 7.3%+/- 2.6%
Hard-Hit%40.5%32.5% to 50.7%+/- 9.1%
K%23.3%20.0% to 31.7%+/- 5.9%
BB%6.3%3.4% to 9.6%+/- 3.1%
BABIP0.2890.221 to 0.354+/- 0.067
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

46 career PA

xwOBA0.157
K%16.1%
BB%2.9%
Barrel1.9%
vs RHP

317 career PA

xwOBA0.176
K%15.0%
BB%3.4%
Barrel3.1%