Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Velázquez, Nelson
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team HOU
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
95
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.290 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.339 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.308 |
| Observed weight | 36% |
xwOBA
0.263
0.285
0.308
0.332
0.353
wOBA
0.293
0.319
0.348
0.376
0.402
ISO
0.137
0.167
0.201
0.234
0.264
K%
21.4%
24.3%
27.5%
30.7%
33.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.7%
93
+16 vs proj
Exit velocity94.8
100
Hard-hit%60.5%
100
+40 vs proj
xBA0.372
94
xSLG0.779
98
xwOBA0.339
85
+53 vs proj
BB%7.9%
43
Bat speed73.3
91
K%31.0%
14
-23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · LF
5
Arm Runs-0.6 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-4.6 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.6 · LF
53
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.1% · rebadged research
53
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.2% · rebadged research
70
Correct Decisions67.2% · rebadged research
61
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · borderline
40
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
45
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
70
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample
36
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334 · validated
60
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.376 · validated
16
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
64
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
39 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.052 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.061 |
| Sample | 126 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 228 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.287 | 0.221 to 0.347 | +/- 0.063 |
| ISO | 0.199 | 0.133 to 0.326 | +/- 0.097 |
| Barrel% | 6.7% | 4.5% to 10.5% | +/- 3.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.7% | 30.4% to 52.4% | +/- 11.0% |
| K% | 25.1% | 19.3% to 37.3% | +/- 9.0% |
| BB% | 7.5% | 3.6% to 12.1% | +/- 4.2% |
| BABIP | 0.262 | 0.171 to 0.324 | +/- 0.077 |
vs LHP
211 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.189 |
| K% | 15.1% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 5.0% |
vs RHP
444 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.182 |
| K% | 15.9% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 5.6% |