Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026
Jackson, Jeremiah
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BAL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
53
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.299 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.282 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.289 |
| Observed weight | 58% |
xwOBA
0.257
0.272
0.289
0.306
0.321
wOBA
0.271
0.287
0.305
0.322
0.338
ISO
0.128
0.144
0.162
0.181
0.197
K%
20.0%
21.4%
22.9%
24.5%
25.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
71
Exit velocity89.2
66
Hard-hit%39.0%
53
xBA0.314
46
xSLG0.513
55
xwOBA0.282
27
-23 vs proj
BB%3.3%
4
-21 vs proj
Bat speed70.6
66
K%22.5%
52
+23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.5 · 2B
92
Arm Strength95.1 · 2B
96
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 2B
14
Range Runs-2.4 · 2B
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.2 · 2B
44
SB Success Rate50.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.7% · rebadged research
22
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.8% · rebadged research
75
Correct Decisions67.5% · rebadged research
64
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
33
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · borderline
61
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.240 · insufficient sample
100
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267 · validated thin sample
82
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · insufficient sample
25
Resists FastballwOBA 0.314 · validated
88
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361 · validated
39
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
183 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.020 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.003 |
| Sample | 306 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 294 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.302 | 0.221 to 0.341 | +/- 0.060 |
| ISO | 0.177 | 0.097 to 0.246 | +/- 0.074 |
| Barrel% | 5.2% | 1.8% to 8.0% | +/- 3.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.2% | 31.0% to 50.4% | +/- 9.7% |
| K% | 26.5% | 17.9% to 29.1% | +/- 5.6% |
| BB% | 6.3% | 3.4% to 9.2% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.317 | 0.267 to 0.366 | +/- 0.049 |
vs LHP
62 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.130 |
| K% | 12.6% |
| BB% | 3.0% |
| Barrel | 2.3% |
vs RHP
146 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.128 |
| K% | 11.8% |
| BB% | 2.5% |
| Barrel | 2.4% |