Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / SD · 2026
Fermin, Freddy
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team SD
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
18
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.291 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.271 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.280 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
xwOBA
0.256
0.267
0.280
0.292
0.303
wOBA
0.262
0.279
0.297
0.316
0.333
ISO
0.098
0.111
0.126
0.141
0.155
K%
16.8%
18.2%
19.8%
21.3%
22.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.5%
18
-16 vs proj
Exit velocity85.5
25
Hard-hit%29.2%
14
-18 vs proj
xBA0.277
12
xSLG0.414
18
xwOBA0.271
20
-18 vs proj
BB%8.0%
44
+24 vs proj
Bat speed66.2
13
K%20.7%
63
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs2.4 · C
94
Catcher Throwing4.2 · C
98
Framing Runs2.7 · C
77
Pop Time1.9 · C
90
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.5 · C
50
SB Success Rate50.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.5% · rebadged research
40
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.9% · rebadged research
74
Correct Decisions66.6% · rebadged research
54
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
58
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
81
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample
71
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.295 · insufficient sample
96
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349 · validated
29
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.323 · validated
96
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
52
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
128 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.022 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.004 |
| Sample | 276 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 428 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.293 | 0.257 to 0.319 | +/- 0.031 |
| ISO | 0.117 | 0.083 to 0.197 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 3.8% | 2.0% to 6.1% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.4% | 32.8% to 43.0% | +/- 5.1% |
| K% | 18.3% | 15.5% to 26.3% | +/- 5.4% |
| BB% | 5.8% | 4.0% to 8.8% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.277 | 0.235 to 0.324 | +/- 0.044 |
vs LHP
317 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.235 |
| K% | 14.4% |
| BB% | 4.9% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |
vs RHP
699 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.212 |
| K% | 14.7% |
| BB% | 4.0% |
| Barrel | 2.8% |