Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Sullivan, Brett
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team COL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
28
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.290 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.281 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.285 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.245
0.264
0.285
0.307
0.326
wOBA
0.282
0.300
0.320
0.340
0.358
ISO
0.110
0.134
0.161
0.188
0.213
K%
15.1%
17.2%
19.6%
21.9%
24.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.2%
27
Exit velocity86.6
37
Hard-hit%35.1%
35
xBA0.288
19
xSLG0.433
25
xwOBA0.281
27
BB%5.2%
16
Bat speed66.6
18
K%16.9%
83
+18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.1 · C
57
Catcher Throwing-1.0 · C
25
Framing Runs-4.3 · C
14
Pop Time2.0 · C
14
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.1 · C
68
SB Success Rate50.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.2% · rebadged research
29
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.0% · rebadged research
31
Changeup Stuff+72
0
Correct Decisions64.7% · rebadged research
33
Mithrandir Stuff+72
3
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · borderline
75
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.252 · insufficient sample
98
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.261 · validated thin sample
89
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
99
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335 · validated
57
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.378 · validated
13
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
23
Slider Stuff+77
1
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
127 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.017 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.055 |
| Sample | 249 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 210 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.264 | 0.172 to 0.325 | +/- 0.076 |
| ISO | 0.140 | 0.047 to 0.254 | +/- 0.104 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 0.4% to 6.6% | +/- 3.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 31.5% | 17.1% to 43.3% | +/- 13.1% |
| K% | 20.3% | 10.9% to 28.5% | +/- 8.8% |
| BB% | 6.3% | 1.7% to 10.4% | +/- 4.4% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.168 to 0.349 | +/- 0.090 |
vs LHP
34 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.071 |
| K% | 6.1% |
| BB% | 1.2% |
| Barrel | 0.8% |
vs RHP
133 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.077 |
| K% | 5.5% |
| BB% | 1.3% |
| Barrel | 0.8% |