Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026
Hayes, Ke'Bryan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CIN
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
50
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.305 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.287 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.295 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.271
0.283
0.295
0.308
0.320
wOBA
0.203
0.219
0.237
0.255
0.271
ISO
0.089
0.102
0.117
0.132
0.145
K%
17.3%
18.4%
19.7%
21.0%
22.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.6%
46
Exit velocity90.5
84
Hard-hit%41.1%
63
-16 vs proj
xBA0.301
31
xSLG0.473
41
xwOBA0.287
32
-20 vs proj
BB%6.5%
28
Bat speed69.2
44
K%19.6%
69
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 3B
34
Arm Strength80.7 · 3B
6
Outs Above Avg5.0 · 3B
90
Range Runs3.6 · 3B
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.9 · 3B
35
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.8% · rebadged research
42
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.8% · rebadged research
7
Correct Decisions62.0% · rebadged research
15
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.235 · borderline
100
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.254 · insufficient sample
96
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample
79
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.293 · insufficient sample
97
Resists FastballwOBA 0.301 · validated
97
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369 · validated
25
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
16
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
154 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.017 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.067 |
| Sample | 260 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 538 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.304 | 0.277 to 0.340 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.132 | 0.093 to 0.205 | +/- 0.056 |
| Barrel% | 4.8% | 2.6% to 7.3% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.4% | 41.3% to 50.8% | +/- 4.8% |
| K% | 19.7% | 16.8% to 24.5% | +/- 3.9% |
| BB% | 6.1% | 4.0% to 8.6% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.265 to 0.343 | +/- 0.039 |
vs LHP
733 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 15.1% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 3.7% |
vs RHP
1937 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 16.9% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |