Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Lockridge, Brandon
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
25
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.266 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.258 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.263 |
| Observed weight | 38% |
xwOBA
0.218
0.239
0.263
0.286
0.308
wOBA
0.345
0.371
0.400
0.429
0.455
ISO
0.035
0.061
0.091
0.121
0.148
K%
18.6%
21.1%
23.8%
26.6%
29.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.5%
7
Exit velocity83.7
10
Hard-hit%38.8%
53
+31 vs proj
xBA0.322
55
xSLG0.393
11
xwOBA0.258
13
BB%8.3%
49
+28 vs proj
Bat speed69.9
53
K%28.0%
24
-34 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · LF
48
Arm Strength91.7 · LF
32
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
50
Range Runs-0.1 · LF
43
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts8.0 · LF
58
SB Success Rate85.7% · LF
67
Sprint Speed29.2 · LF
92
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.4% · rebadged research
70
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.6% · rebadged research
35
Correct Decisions67.6% · rebadged research
64
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.317 · borderline
14
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.291 · insufficient sample
23
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample
68
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · insufficient sample
18
Resists FastballwOBA 0.344 · validated
38
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.329 · validated
93
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
63
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
79 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.020 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.122 |
| Sample | 132 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 287 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.278 | 0.192 to 0.323 | +/- 0.066 |
| ISO | 0.095 | 0.031 to 0.209 | +/- 0.089 |
| Barrel% | 2.6% | 0.5% to 6.0% | +/- 2.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 31.6% | 20.2% to 44.9% | +/- 12.3% |
| K% | 21.6% | 17.0% to 32.5% | +/- 7.7% |
| BB% | 5.9% | 1.5% to 8.6% | +/- 3.6% |
| BABIP | 0.291 | 0.213 to 0.394 | +/- 0.090 |
vs LHP
92 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.115 |
| K% | 11.4% |
| BB% | 2.3% |
| Barrel | 1.2% |
vs RHP
106 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.111 |
| K% | 11.3% |
| BB% | 2.1% |
| Barrel | 0.9% |