Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026

Smith, Pavin

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.304 xwOBA
Range
0.278 to 0.369
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Balanced regular Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
31
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
38
Defense1 metrics
73
Speed1 metrics
7
Plate skills10 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
xwOBA preseason0.314
xwOBA current pace0.287
xwOBA rolling p500.304
Observed weight38%
xwOBA
0.270 0.286 0.304 0.322 0.338
wOBA
0.248 0.272 0.299 0.325 0.350
ISO
0.086 0.110 0.137 0.164 0.189
K%
18.9% 21.1% 23.5% 26.0% 28.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.8%
33 -34 vs proj
Exit velocity87.0
41
Hard-hit%37.6%
47 -18 vs proj
xBA0.284
16
xSLG0.422
21
xwOBA0.287
31 -21 vs proj
BB%9.0%
57 -23 vs proj
Bat speed68.2
32
K%21.1%
61 +33 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
73
Range Runs0.6 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.2 · 1B
7
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-27
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.9% · rebadged research
79
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.0% · rebadged research
10
Correct Decisions66.5% · rebadged research
54
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · borderline
74
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · insufficient sample
35
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.295 · validated thin sample
20
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.311 · insufficient sample
82
Resists FastballwOBA 0.313 · validated
89
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.368 · validated
27
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
48
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Smith, Pavin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.287 2026-09-13: 0.2552026-09-14: 0.2552026-09-18: 0.2712026-09-19: 0.2662026-09-20: 0.2662026-09-21: 0.2742026-09-22: 0.2742026-09-23: 0.2742026-09-24: 0.2792026-09-25: 0.2792026-09-26: 0.2842026-09-27: 0.287 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

48 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Smith, Pavin · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsPull 15%Center field third: 73% of plotted batted ballsCenter 73%Right field third: 12% of plotted batted ballsOppo 12% LF 330 CF 400 RF 330 2026-03-19 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 108.6 / LA -1.02026-03-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 73.4 / LA 10.02026-03-19 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 34.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 66.3 / LA -30.02026-03-22 · single · FC · fly_ball · EV 68.8 / LA 31.02026-03-22 · field out · KN · ground_ball · EV 75.8 / LA -14.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 75.8 / LA -33.02026-03-23 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.6 / LA -7.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.2 / LA -5.02026-03-23 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 76.3 / LA 21.02026-03-24 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 65.5 / LA 27.02026-03-27 · field out · SL · popup · EV 79.7 / LA 74.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.5 / LA 47.02026-03-28 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.5 / LA 37.02026-03-28 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 105.6 / LA 0.02026-06-01 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 95.3 / LA 5.02026-06-04 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 89.2 / LA -7.02026-06-05 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 78.5 / LA 32.02026-06-07 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 30.02026-06-07 · single · KC · fly_ball · EV 62.5 / LA 31.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 1.02026-06-15 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 37.02026-06-15 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.1 / LA 1.02026-06-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.6 / LA -15.02026-06-20 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 100.2 / LA 13.02026-06-20 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.6 / LA -1.02026-06-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.9 / LA -2.02026-06-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 80.7 / LA -17.02026-06-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 60.9 / LA -3.02026-06-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.0 / LA -8.02026-06-26 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 73.1 / LA 31.02026-06-26 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 105.7 / LA 8.02026-06-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 64.6 / LA -52.02026-06-26 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 95.3 / LA 37.02026-06-30 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 35.02026-06-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.0 / LA 45.02026-07-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 78.5 / LA -5.02026-07-01 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 96.4 / LA 7.02026-07-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 64.7 / LA -57.02026-07-01 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 106.1 / LA 10.02026-09-12 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.9 / LA -9.02026-09-18 · field out · FF · popup · EV 76.7 / LA 66.02026-09-23 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 104.3 / LA 10.02026-09-23 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 96.2 / LA 9.02026-09-25 · field out · FS · popup · EV 72.6 / LA 48.02026-09-26 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 48.7 / LA -76.02026-09-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 103.0 / LA 13.02026-09-26 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 65.8 / LA -42.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Smith, Pavin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 51%51%Chase: 27%27%Whiff: 19%19%Zone contact: 88%88%Contact: 81%81%Hard hit: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.246 vs 0.212 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.017
wOBA Δ-0.005
Sample133 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances373----
Home Runs12----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3040.278 to 0.369+/- 0.046
ISO0.1650.097 to 0.257+/- 0.080
Barrel%5.9%3.7% to 8.7%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%41.5%35.5% to 50.4%+/- 7.4%
K%26.7%18.8% to 32.7%+/- 6.9%
BB%11.1%9.0% to 15.1%+/- 3.1%
BABIP0.2880.238 to 0.341+/- 0.052
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

349 career PA

xwOBA0.212
K%19.1%
BB%8.9%
Barrel3.4%
vs RHP

1321 career PA

xwOBA0.246
K%17.9%
BB%9.9%
Barrel5.0%