Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026
Hill, Derek
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team PHI
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
50
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.284 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.289 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.287 |
| Observed weight | 51% |
xwOBA
0.246
0.265
0.287
0.308
0.327
wOBA
0.312
0.331
0.353
0.374
0.393
ISO
0.119
0.138
0.160
0.181
0.201
K%
26.7%
28.4%
30.2%
32.1%
33.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.0%
69
+24 vs proj
Exit velocity84.0
13
Hard-hit%32.9%
27
-24 vs proj
xBA0.345
79
xSLG0.593
78
xwOBA0.289
35
BB%6.9%
32
+16 vs proj
Bat speed67.4
25
K%31.9%
9
-16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · CF
53
Arm Strength97.5 · CF
79
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
50
Range Runs2.9 · CF
76
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.4 · CF
71
Bolts16.0 · CF
72
SB Success Rate81.2% · CF
53
Sprint Speed29.5 · CF
95
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.0% · rebadged research
23
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.3% · rebadged research
69
Correct Decisions65.7% · rebadged research
45
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · borderline
76
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · insufficient sample
37
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292 · validated thin sample
23
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.338 · insufficient sample
23
Resists FastballwOBA 0.379 · validated
8
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.329 · validated
93
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
32
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
90 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.003 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.066 |
| Sample | 232 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 305 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.287 | 0.222 to 0.367 | +/- 0.072 |
| ISO | 0.140 | 0.066 to 0.218 | +/- 0.076 |
| Barrel% | 4.6% | 2.1% to 8.0% | +/- 3.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.2% | 29.3% to 49.6% | +/- 10.1% |
| K% | 27.6% | 22.1% to 34.0% | +/- 5.9% |
| BB% | 5.2% | 2.7% to 8.5% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.289 | 0.203 to 0.341 | +/- 0.069 |
vs LHP
255 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.184 |
| K% | 18.7% |
| BB% | 3.5% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |
vs RHP
441 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.167 |
| K% | 19.4% |
| BB% | 2.5% |
| Barrel | 2.9% |