Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / MIA · 2026

Navarreto, Brian

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.293 xwOBA
Range
0.113 to 0.307
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Impact slugger Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
6
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
10
Defense4 metrics
63
Speed1 metrics
15
Plate skills10 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
xwOBA preseason0.275
xwOBA current pace0.178
xwOBA rolling p500.254
Observed weight22%
xwOBA
0.176 0.213 0.254 0.295 0.332
wOBA
0.168 0.201 0.238 0.275 0.308
ISO
0.040 0.084 0.132 0.181 0.224
K%
15.9% 20.2% 25.0% 29.8% 34.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.3%
28
Exit velocity77.8
1
Hard-hit%21.6%
4 -36 vs proj
xBA0.213
0
xSLG0.321
3
xwOBA0.178
1 -38 vs proj
BB%3.3%
4
Bat speed69.1
43
K%32.8%
6 -57 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.2 · C
45
Catcher Throwing2.2 · C
88
Framing Runs-0.5 · C
43
Pop Time1.9 · C
78
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.9 · C
15
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-27
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.7% · rebadged research
15
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.7% · rebadged research
66
Correct Decisions62.1% · rebadged research
16
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
73
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
65
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280 · validated thin sample
46
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · insufficient sample
20
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329 · validated
70
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345 · validated
78
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
23
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Navarreto, Brian · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.178 2026-09-13: 0.1792026-09-14: 0.1792026-09-18: 0.1792026-09-19: 0.1762026-09-20: 0.1762026-09-21: 0.1762026-09-22: 0.1762026-09-23: 0.1762026-09-24: 0.1762026-09-25: 0.1762026-09-26: 0.1782026-09-27: 0.178 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

19 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Navarreto, Brian · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 16% of plotted batted ballsPull 16%Center field third: 79% of plotted batted ballsCenter 79%Right field third: 5% of plotted batted ballsOppo 5% LF 344 CF 400 RF 335 2026-03-16 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 70.4 / LA -3.02026-03-16 · field out · SL · popup · EV 74.9 / LA 63.02026-03-17 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 87.1 / LA 27.02026-06-24 · sac bunt · SL · ground_ball · EV 22.7 / LA 18.02026-06-30 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 93.2 / LA 38.02026-07-01 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 66.9 / LA -43.02026-08-16 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 72.7 / LA -10.02026-08-16 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 6.3 / LA -2.02026-08-16 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.7 / LA -49.02026-08-17 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 94.2 / LA 5.02026-08-17 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 23.02026-08-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.7 / LA -25.02026-08-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 70.0 / LA -28.02026-08-31 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 76.8 / LA 10.02026-08-31 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 61.7 / LA -20.02026-09-01 · field out · FF · popup · EV 75.5 / LA 78.02026-09-04 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 38.02026-09-08 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 101.2 / LA 7.02026-09-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 0.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Navarreto, Brian · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 41%41%Whiff: 30%30%Zone contact: 83%83%Contact: 70%70%Hard hit: 22%22% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
hitter
2
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
hitter
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.116
wOBA Δ-0.055
Sample61 PA
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances209----
Home Runs7----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2930.113 to 0.307+/- 0.097
ISO0.1450.023 to 0.255+/- 0.116
Barrel%4.1%1.0% to 7.5%+/- 3.2%
Hard-Hit%36.1%14.1% to 43.0%+/- 14.5%
K%20.5%8.8% to 31.8%+/- 11.5%
BB%5.3%1.4% to 8.3%+/- 3.5%
BABIP0.2930.170 to 0.347+/- 0.088
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

12 career PA

xwOBA0.023
K%1.6%
BB%0.3%
Barrel1.1%
vs RHP

24 career PA

xwOBA0.022
K%1.7%
BB%0.2%
Barrel1.1%