Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 28 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / DET · 2026

Báez, Javier

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.290 xwOBA
Range
0.251 to 0.332
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Balanced regular Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
27
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
34
Defense4 metrics
38
Speed1 metrics
38
Plate skills10 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28
xwOBA preseason0.293
xwOBA current pace0.266
xwOBA rolling p500.280
Observed weight49%
xwOBA
0.252 0.265 0.280 0.295 0.308
wOBA
0.282 0.301 0.323 0.344 0.364
ISO
0.104 0.120 0.138 0.156 0.172
K%
19.5% 20.9% 22.5% 24.0% 25.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.9%
11 -33 vs proj
Exit velocity86.6
36
Hard-hit%36.5%
40
xBA0.311
39
xSLG0.417
19
xwOBA0.266
16 -19 vs proj
BB%3.3%
4
Bat speed72.1
81
K%21.0%
62
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · SS
10
Arm Strength92.7 · SS
87
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · SS
19
Range Runs-1.6 · SS
37
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · SS
38
SB Success Rate33.3% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-28
Avoids Bad ChasesST 50.0% · rebadged research
4
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5% · rebadged research
27
Correct Decisions55.4% · rebadged research
2
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · borderline
83
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · insufficient sample
91
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279 · validated thin sample
55
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.344 · insufficient sample
16
Resists FastballwOBA 0.367 · validated
14
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.331 · validated
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline83
4
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Báez, Javier · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.266 2026-09-14: 0.2552026-09-18: 0.2512026-09-19: 0.2532026-09-20: 0.2532026-09-21: 0.2532026-09-22: 0.2632026-09-23: 0.2612026-09-24: 0.2612026-09-25: 0.2612026-09-26: 0.2612026-09-27: 0.2662026-09-28: 0.266 2026-09-14 2026-09-28 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Javier Báez's tools (85) outpace production (70) by 15 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects. Also flagged: Launch Angle Too High.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High
-9.0° Current 29° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Contact-Discipline Mismatch
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

135 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Báez, Javier · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 10% of plotted batted ballsPull 10%Center field third: 79% of plotted batted ballsCenter 79%Right field third: 12% of plotted batted ballsOppo 12% LF 345 CF 420 RF 330 2026-03-15 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 6.02026-03-15 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 0.02026-03-15 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 93.8 / LA 35.02026-03-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.4 / LA -21.02026-03-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.4 / LA -23.02026-03-17 · field error · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.5 / LA -12.02026-03-18 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.4 / LA -9.02026-03-20 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.2 / LA 3.02026-03-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.1 / LA -3.02026-03-21 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 97.0 / LA -10.02026-03-21 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.1 / LA 3.02026-03-21 · double · FC · ground_ball · EV 92.0 / LA 4.02026-03-23 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 91.0 / LA -19.02026-03-26 · field out · ST · popup · EV 79.9 / LA 63.02026-03-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.0 / LA 1.02026-03-27 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 89.2 / LA 36.02026-03-27 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 71.5 / LA -28.02026-03-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 47.8 / LA -73.02026-03-30 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 74.5 / LA 33.02026-03-30 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 77.3 / LA 9.02026-04-01 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 74.5 / LA 0.02026-04-01 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 74.0 / LA -16.02026-04-03 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 80.0 / LA 23.02026-04-03 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 100.0 / LA -15.02026-04-03 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 1.02026-04-05 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 101.1 / LA -1.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.0 / LA -1.02026-04-05 · sac fly · SI · line_drive · EV 94.4 / LA 17.02026-04-07 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 89.7 / LA 16.02026-04-07 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA -18.02026-04-08 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 67.2 / LA 15.02026-04-08 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.9 / LA -21.02026-04-08 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.3 / LA -3.02026-04-08 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 98.3 / LA 15.02026-04-09 · single · ST · fly_ball · EV 71.6 / LA 31.02026-04-09 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 101.0 / LA -16.02026-04-09 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 73.0 / LA 27.02026-04-09 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 24.02026-04-10 · home run · ST · line_drive · EV 100.5 / LA 22.02026-04-10 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 93.0 / LA 19.02026-04-12 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 103.5 / LA 12.02026-04-12 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 83.6 / LA 24.02026-04-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.0 / LA -18.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 78.0 / LA 23.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · popup · EV 68.2 / LA 39.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.0 / LA -14.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · popup · EV 62.0 / LA 52.02026-04-15 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 73.6 / LA -26.02026-04-15 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 94.0 / LA 15.02026-04-16 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 91.0 / LA 32.02026-04-17 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 100.6 / LA 11.02026-04-17 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 73.1 / LA 13.02026-04-17 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 61.9 / LA 13.02026-04-18 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 70.1 / LA 15.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 83.6 / LA -17.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 71.7 / LA -39.02026-04-18 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 25.02026-04-19 · field out · FC · popup · EV 87.9 / LA 73.02026-04-19 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 85.7 / LA 22.02026-04-19 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 98.2 / LA 11.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.2 / LA 30.02026-04-21 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 85.9 / LA -14.02026-04-22 · field out · FC · popup · EV 58.0 / LA 80.02026-04-22 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 79.7 / LA -52.02026-04-22 · single · FC · fly_ball · EV 69.3 / LA 28.02026-04-22 · field out · FC · popup · EV 80.5 / LA 58.02026-04-23 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 87.1 / LA 13.02026-04-23 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 50.02026-04-23 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 90.6 / LA -10.02026-04-24 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 99.3 / LA -21.02026-04-24 · field out · SV · line_drive · EV 73.1 / LA 13.02026-04-24 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.1 / LA 24.02026-04-25 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 92.6 / LA 41.02026-04-26 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball2026-04-28 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 71.0 / LA -43.02026-04-28 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.9 / LA 9.02026-07-31 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 95.1 / LA 21.02026-07-31 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 94.4 / LA -8.02026-07-31 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 61.8 / LA 34.02026-07-31 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 70.4 / LA 33.02026-07-31 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 75.9 / LA -1.02026-08-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.4 / LA 37.02026-08-04 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 80.9 / LA -36.02026-08-07 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 90.9 / LA 36.02026-08-07 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 73.4 / LA 47.02026-08-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.5 / LA -20.02026-08-07 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 83.1 / LA -29.02026-08-08 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 102.5 / LA -2.02026-08-08 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 87.8 / LA -16.02026-08-08 · field out · CU · popup · EV 60.4 / LA 68.02026-08-08 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 85.8 / LA 53.02026-08-11 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 0.02026-08-11 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 95.3 / LA 30.02026-08-13 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 97.3 / LA 7.02026-08-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 73.1 / LA -2.02026-08-15 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 87.1 / LA 11.02026-08-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA -21.02026-08-16 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.8 / LA -30.02026-08-16 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -16.02026-08-16 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 5.02026-08-16 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 73.6 / LA -11.02026-08-17 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 62.6 / LA -10.02026-08-17 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA -27.02026-08-17 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 107.8 / LA -22.02026-08-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 75.4 / LA -11.02026-08-21 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 91.9 / LA 13.02026-08-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 64.5 / LA -17.02026-08-23 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 91.3 / LA -16.02026-08-23 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 99.3 / LA 15.02026-08-24 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.7 / LA -20.02026-08-29 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 101.4 / LA 15.02026-08-29 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 73.5 / LA -31.02026-08-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 83.3 / LA -29.02026-08-30 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 76.4 / LA 0.02026-08-30 · field out · SI · popup · EV 73.0 / LA 65.02026-09-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.1 / LA 32.02026-09-01 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 103.8 / LA -10.02026-09-01 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 107.8 / LA -8.02026-09-02 · double · SL · popup · EV 59.8 / LA 40.02026-09-04 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 93.5 / LA -11.02026-09-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 39.5 / LA -73.02026-09-04 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 41.02026-09-05 · fielders choice · ST · ground_ball · EV 55.5 / LA -16.02026-09-05 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 85.4 / LA 32.02026-09-11 · field out · FF · popup · EV 66.5 / LA 49.02026-09-11 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 71.8 / LA -5.02026-09-11 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 88.2 / LA 31.02026-09-18 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 98.3 / LA 13.02026-09-21 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 107.8 / LA 29.02026-09-22 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 88.0 / LA 29.02026-09-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.5 / LA -14.02026-09-22 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 89.3 / LA 4.02026-09-26 · fielders choice · CU · ground_ball · EV 108.6 / LA 0.02026-09-26 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 13.02026-09-26 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 103.1 / LA 10.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Báez, Javier · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 72.5 mph Hard swing rate 22% Whiff / swing 26% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Báez, Javier · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 43%43%Chase: 47%47%Whiff: 29%29%Zone contact: 82%82%Contact: 71%71%Hard hit: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Age-34 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.024
wOBA Δ+0.032
Sample214 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances477----
Home Runs11----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2900.251 to 0.332+/- 0.040
ISO0.1340.091 to 0.213+/- 0.061
Barrel%4.4%2.3% to 6.8%+/- 2.3%
Hard-Hit%38.0%33.9% to 46.1%+/- 6.1%
K%22.4%20.0% to 29.5%+/- 4.7%
BB%3.8%2.4% to 7.2%+/- 2.4%
BABIP0.2900.237 to 0.344+/- 0.053
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1317 career PA

xwOBA0.244
K%18.6%
BB%3.3%
Barrel4.3%
vs RHP

3884 career PA

xwOBA0.219
K%19.7%
BB%2.5%
Barrel3.3%