Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / NYM · 2026
Polanco, Jorge
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team NYM
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 33
Status IL-60
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
15
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.340 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.234 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.295 |
| Observed weight | 43% |
xwOBA
0.266
0.280
0.295
0.310
0.324
wOBA
0.196
0.216
0.239
0.261
0.281
ISO
0.089
0.108
0.128
0.148
0.166
K%
19.1%
20.6%
22.3%
24.0%
25.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.1%
25
-45 vs proj
Exit velocity85.7
26
Hard-hit%30.4%
18
-46 vs proj
xBA0.257
6
xSLG0.388
10
xwOBA0.234
4
-76 vs proj
BB%6.7%
30
-23 vs proj
Bat speed67.6
27
K%22.7%
51
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
65
Regression applied
Range Runs-0.3 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.1 · DH
19
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.5% · rebadged research
40
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.8% · rebadged research
34
Correct Decisions63.4% · rebadged research
22
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.340 · borderline
2
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · insufficient sample
87
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.255 · validated thin sample
93
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
73
Resists FastballwOBA 0.307 · validated
94
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.338 · validated
84
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
32
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
81 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.099 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.094 |
| Sample | 163 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 548 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 23 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.333 | 0.299 to 0.378 | +/- 0.040 |
| ISO | 0.163 | 0.130 to 0.257 | +/- 0.064 |
| Barrel% | 6.1% | 4.5% to 8.6% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.2% | 36.3% to 48.0% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 21.1% | 17.3% to 26.7% | +/- 4.7% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 6.6% to 12.0% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.287 | 0.239 to 0.325 | +/- 0.043 |
vs LHP
1377 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 17.1% |
| BB% | 5.7% |
| Barrel | 4.4% |
vs RHP
3361 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.274 |
| K% | 19.4% |
| BB% | 8.1% |
| Barrel | 6.3% |