Mithrandir Metrics
Player MIN Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / MIN

Alan Roden

Player · Bats/Throws L/R · 5' 11", 215 lb · Age 26

Cards
11
Modules
2
Live Δ
yes
Club MIN Position -- Roster profile Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2025153172621.191.261.294.555
20269472310.291.376.392.768
2 Seasons247244931.228.305.330.635
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
62
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
64
Defense4 metrics
34
Speed1 metrics
41
Plate skills10 metrics
27
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
xwOBA preseason0.266
xwOBA current pace0.361
xwOBA rolling p500.297
Observed weight33%
xwOBA
0.245 0.270 0.297 0.325 0.349
wOBA
0.369 0.398 0.430 0.462 0.491
ISO
0.053 0.082 0.114 0.146 0.175
K%
12.5% 15.2% 18.3% 21.3% 24.0%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.6%
47 +28 vs proj
Exit velocity86.3
32
Hard-hit%42.5%
70 +38 vs proj
xBA0.350
83
xSLG0.494
48
xwOBA0.361
95 +66 vs proj
BB%13.0%
92 +62 vs proj
Bat speed66.2
14
K%13.0%
95 +27 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.0 · RF
26
Arm Strength89.2 · RF
17
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
50
Range Runs-0.2 · RF
43
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.1 · RF
41
Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-27
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.3% · rebadged research
25
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.2% · rebadged research
9
Correct Decisions60.8% · rebadged research
10
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.314 · borderline
15
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
54
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289 · validated thin sample
27
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample
33
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328 · validated
71
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.372 · validated
21
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline90
11
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Roden, Alan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.361 2026-09-13: 0.3422026-09-14: 0.3422026-09-18: 0.3422026-09-19: 0.3422026-09-20: 0.3422026-09-21: 0.3452026-09-22: 0.3492026-09-23: 0.3492026-09-24: 0.3512026-09-25: 0.3512026-09-26: 0.3512026-09-27: 0.361 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Alan Roden's tools (82) outpace production (80) by 2 points. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Passive In-Zone Approach
Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

40 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Roden, Alan · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 18% of plotted batted ballsPull 18%Center field third: 70% of plotted batted ballsCenter 70%Right field third: 12% of plotted batted ballsOppo 12% LF 339 CF 403 RF 328 2026-03-15 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 27.02026-03-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.4 / LA 40.02026-03-15 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA 0.02026-03-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 32.02026-03-16 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 66.0 / LA -47.02026-03-19 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 73.9 / LA 16.02026-03-19 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 36.02026-03-21 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 95.4 / LA 4.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 40.02026-03-22 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -5.02026-07-31 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 70.1 / LA -59.02026-07-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.9 / LA 39.02026-08-02 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 1.02026-08-02 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 69.1 / LA 21.02026-08-04 · sac fly · CH · fly_ball · EV 71.8 / LA 32.02026-08-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.4 / LA 40.02026-08-08 · field out · FF · popup · EV 59.1 / LA 52.02026-08-11 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.1 / LA 51.02026-08-11 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 96.5 / LA -31.02026-08-11 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 73.6 / LA -11.02026-08-17 · sac bunt · CU · ground_ball · EV 20.7 / LA -26.02026-08-17 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 107.3 / LA 3.02026-08-17 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 102.2 / LA 12.02026-08-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 77.3 / LA -30.02026-08-23 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.5 / LA 7.02026-08-23 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 76.3 / LA 6.02026-08-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 71.0 / LA 9.02026-08-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 35.02026-08-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 29.8 / LA -41.02026-09-20 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 95.7 / LA 10.02026-09-20 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 95.2 / LA 14.02026-09-20 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 32.02026-09-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.0 / LA -10.02026-09-21 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 59.4 / LA -23.02026-09-21 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 7.02026-09-23 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 69.1 / LA 16.02026-09-23 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 82.5 / LA 5.02026-09-23 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 54.4 / LA 28.02026-09-26 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 11.02026-09-26 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 31.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Roden, Alan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 49%49%Chase: 25%25%Whiff: 15%15%Zone contact: 94%94%Contact: 85%85%Hard hit: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ+0.077
wOBA Δ+0.146

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.8σ gap
wOBA (actual)0.430
xwOBA (deserved)0.361

Roden’s wOBA sits at 0.430, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.361 — a gap of 0.069, -1.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 108 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Hitting12026-09-26Impact contact was the main driver
Fielding102026-08-185 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +0.451
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.284 xwOBA | 7 HRProjection