Mithrandir Metrics
Player BAL Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / BAL

Heston Kjerstad

Player · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 2", 215 lb · Age 27

Cards
4
Modules
1
Live Δ
--
Club BAL Position -- Roster profile Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
202411482541.253.351.394.745
2025167163041.192.240.327.567
2026191400.211.211.263.474
4 Seasons3332866102.217.280.359.639
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
37
Offense
percentile
Defense1 metrics
69
Plate skills9 metrics
34
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
xwOBA preseason0.305
xwOBA current pace0.205
xwOBA rolling p500.295
Observed weight11%
xwOBA
0.246 0.269 0.295 0.321 0.344
wOBA
0.106 0.154 0.208 0.262 0.310
ISO
0.081 0.107 0.136 0.165 0.191
K%
23.5% 26.1% 29.0% 31.8% 34.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · RF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
69 Regression applied
Range Runs-0.0 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.8 · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-27
Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.4% · rebadged research
6
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.2% · rebadged research
9
Correct Decisions61.5% · rebadged research
13
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
56
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
62
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.285 · validated thin sample
34
Resists FastballwOBA 0.338 · validated
48
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348 · validated
73
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline82
4
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

11 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Kjerstad, Heston · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 9% of plotted batted ballsPull 9%Center field third: 73% of plotted batted ballsCenter 73%Right field third: 18% of plotted batted ballsOppo 18% LF 333 CF 400 RF 318 2026-03-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.5 / LA 29.02026-03-19 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 47.6 / LA 24.02026-03-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 74.7 / LA -15.02026-09-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 76.7 / LA 45.02026-09-02 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 83.0 / LA 37.02026-09-05 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 95.0 / LA -8.02026-09-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 85.9 / LA 14.02026-09-05 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 84.3 / LA 26.02026-09-09 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 82.3 / LA 6.02026-09-11 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 97.2 / LA 13.02026-09-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 66.7 / LA -30.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Kjerstad, Heston · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 45%45%Chase: 38%38%Whiff: 31%31%Zone contact: 84%84%Contact: 69%69%Hard hit: 15%15% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

No Live State delta is available for this profile yet.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Fielding42026-09-144 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.349
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.304 xwOBA | 9 HRProjection