Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 27 |
| Height | 5' 11" |
| Weight | 190 lb |
| Debut | 2022-05-30 |
Player profile / Houston Astros
Nelson Velázquez
LF · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 11", 190 lb · Age 27
Club Houston Astros
Position LF
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 179 | 35 | 38 | 17 | 0 | .235 | .302 | .586 | .888 |
| 2024 | 230 | 31 | 41 | 8 | 2 | .200 | .274 | .366 | .640 |
| 2026 | 113 | 12 | 19 | 6 | 0 | .188 | .257 | .406 | .663 |
| 4 Seasons | 728 | 98 | 136 | 37 | 7 | .208 | .282 | .429 | .711 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
95
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.290 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.339 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.308 |
| Observed weight | 36% |
xwOBA
0.263
0.285
0.308
0.332
0.353
wOBA
0.293
0.319
0.348
0.376
0.402
ISO
0.137
0.167
0.201
0.234
0.264
K%
21.4%
24.3%
27.5%
30.7%
33.5%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.7%
93
+16 vs proj
Exit velocity94.8
100
Hard-hit%60.5%
100
+40 vs proj
xBA0.372
94
xSLG0.779
98
xwOBA0.339
85
+53 vs proj
BB%7.9%
43
Bat speed73.3
91
K%31.0%
14
-23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · LF
5
Arm Runs-0.6 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-4.6 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.6 · LF
53
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.1% · rebadged research
53
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.2% · rebadged research
70
Correct Decisions67.2% · rebadged research
61
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · borderline
40
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
45
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
70
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample
36
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334 · validated
60
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.376 · validated
16
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
64
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
39 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.052 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.061 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Velázquez’s wOBA sits at 0.348, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.339 — a gap of 0.008, -0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 126 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 2 | 2026-06-30 | Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.287 xwOBA | 11 HR | Projection |
| 2026-03-21 vs MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 2-3 | K |
| 2026-03-19 vs WSH0 HR | 1 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 2-3 | BB, RBI, R |
| 2026-03-18 vs HOU0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 |