Mithrandir Metrics
Player Charlotte Knights Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Charlotte Knights

Chris Murphy

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 1", 186 lb · Age 28

Cards
3
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Charlotte Knights Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Out / inactive
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2023124.91200147.2491.41
2025303.12230034.2301.18
2026304.81333133.2351.43
3 Seasons724.347632116.01141.34
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
43
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
54
Arsenal6 metrics
62
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.03
ERA current pace4.81
ERA rolling p504.34
Observed weight40%
ERA
2.97 3.62 4.34 5.07 5.72
FIP
3.54 3.90 4.30 4.71 5.07
K%
18.5% 20.4% 22.6% 24.7% 26.7%
BB%
7.7% 9.1% 10.6% 12.1% 13.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.36
45
ERA4.81
30
BB%10.6%
30
K%21.9%
48
xwOBA allowed0.303
63 +19 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.8%
43
Fastball velo96.0
75
Hard-hit allowed34.3%
80
Whiff%26.2%
77 +17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+104
66
Curveball Stuff+104
79
Fastball Stuff+106
78
Mithrandir Stuff+102
44
Sinker Stuff+113
100
Slider Stuff+93
6
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Murphy, Chris · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.303 2026-09-13: 0.2922026-09-14: 0.2852026-09-18: 0.2952026-09-19: 0.3032026-09-20: 0.3032026-09-21: 0.3032026-09-22: 0.3032026-09-23: 0.3032026-09-24: 0.3032026-09-25: 0.3032026-09-26: 0.3032026-09-27: 0.303 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Murphy, Chris · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Murphy, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 33.4%Slider: 29.4%Curveball: 23.6%Sweeper: 4.8%Sinker: 3.7%Changeup: 3.4% FF33% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 33%SL 29%CU 24%ST 5%SI 4%CH 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Murphy, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.3 mphFF96 mphSlider: 29% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 89.3 mphSL89 mphCurveball: 24% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 78.0 mphCU78 mphSweeper: 5% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 80.4 mphST80 mphSinker: 4% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 93.7 mphSI94 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mphSlurve: 2% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 82.8 mphSV83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 34.5% 97 93 limited sample
FB 32.0% 90 106 limited sample
CB 23.1% 65 104 limited sample
SI 6.0% 17 113 limited sample
CH 4.3% 12 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 1"
Weight186 lb
Debut2023-06-07
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.67
K% Δ-0.002

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.5σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.356
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.303

Murphy’s wOBA-against sits at 0.356, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.303 — a gap of 0.053, 1.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 36 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching32026-07-05Curveball played up through CU/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202622.1% K | 4.14 ERAProjection
2026-04-07 vs BAL1 ER / 0 K0.2 IP
2026-04-05 vs TOR0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-04 vs TOR1 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-01 @ MIA1 ER / 3 K2.0 IP
2026-03-29 @ MIL4 ER / 1 K0.1 IP