Mithrandir Metrics
Player Milwaukee Brewers Refreshed Sep 30 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Milwaukee Brewers

Dustin May

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 6", 180 lb · Age 29

Cards
30
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Milwaukee Brewers Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2023412.6399048.0340.94
20257114.9625230132.11231.42
2026794.7031310145.21441.32
7 Seasons26294.12102880469.24411.24
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-30
48
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal7 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-30
ERA preseason4.12
ERA current pace4.67
ERA rolling p504.52
Observed weight73%
ERA
3.34 3.90 4.52 5.14 5.71
FIP
2.87 3.27 3.71 4.15 4.55
K%
20.5% 21.5% 22.6% 23.7% 24.6%
BB%
6.9% 7.5% 8.1% 8.7% 9.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-30
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
49
ERA4.67
33
BB%7.9%
64
K%22.8%
56 +19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.323
36
Barrel allowed7.5%
49
Fastball velo96.8
84
Hard-hit allowed44.8%
10
Whiff%21.1%
36 +20 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-30
Cutter Stuff+105
82
Fastball Stuff+106
80
Mithrandir Stuff+107
90
Sinker Stuff+108
90
Slider Stuff+106
84
Changeup Stuff+103
61
Curveball Stuff+101
29
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed May, Dustin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.323 2026-09-19: 0.3222026-09-20: 0.3222026-09-21: 0.3222026-09-22: 0.3222026-09-23: 0.3242026-09-24: 0.3242026-09-25: 0.3242026-09-26: 0.3242026-09-27: 0.3232026-09-28: 0.3232026-09-29: 0.3232026-09-30: 0.323 2026-09-19 2026-09-30 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile May, Dustin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal May, Dustin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 24.5%Cutter: 23.4%Sinker: 20.2%Sweeper: 17.9%Curveball: 7.6%Changeup: 6.2% FF25% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 25%FC 23%SI 20%ST 18%CU 8%CH 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal May, Dustin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.9 mphFF97 mphCutter: 23% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.3 mphFC93 mphSinker: 20% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 96.6 mphSI97 mphSweeper: 18% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 86.0 mphST86 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 83.6 mphCU84 mphChangeup: 6% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 90.3 mphCH90 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.7 mphPO96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 24.2% 370 106 qualified
FC 24.0% 366 105 qualified
SI 21.1% 322 108 qualified
SL 17.0% 259 106 qualified
CB 8.4% 129 101 limited sample
CH 5.3% 81 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age29
Height6' 6"
Weight180 lb
Debut2019-08-02
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.32
K% Δ+0.024

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.5σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.335
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.323

May’s wOBA-against sits at 0.335, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.323 — a gap of 0.012, 0.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 147 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching302026-09-26Four-Seam Fastball played up through FC/CU tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.4% K | 4.35 ERAProjection
2026-04-15 vs CLE1 ER / 4 K6.0 IP
2026-04-04 @ DET7 ER / 4 K3.1 IP
2026-03-29 vs TB6 ER / 3 K4.0 IP