Mithrandir Metrics
Player Boston Red Sox Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Boston Red Sox

Erik Miller

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 5", 269 lb · Age 28

Cards
1
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Boston Red Sox Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024453.887310067.1871.31
2025411.50360030.0221.47
2026422.98571551.1741.38
3 Seasons1283.09166115148.21831.37
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
63
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
75
Arsenal5 metrics
34
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason3.68
ERA current pace2.98
ERA rolling p503.33
Observed weight49%
ERA
1.69 2.47 3.33 4.20 4.98
FIP
2.30 2.81 3.37 3.94 4.44
K%
24.8% 26.7% 28.9% 31.0% 32.9%
BB%
10.3% 11.7% 13.2% 14.7% 16.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.35
46
ERA2.98
83
BB%14.5%
5 -15 vs proj
K%31.9%
96 +23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.275
86 +42 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.9%
75 +21 vs proj
Fastball velo96.8
85
Hard-hit allowed29.7%
97
Whiff%33.1%
98
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-29
Mithrandir Stuff+103
56
Sinker Stuff+103
57
Slider Stuff+102
50
Changeup Stuff+86
2
Fastball Stuff+90
4
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Miller, Erik · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.275 2026-09-18: 0.2752026-09-19: 0.2742026-09-20: 0.2742026-09-21: 0.2742026-09-22: 0.2742026-09-23: 0.2752026-09-24: 0.2752026-09-25: 0.2752026-09-26: 0.2752026-09-27: 0.2752026-09-28: 0.2752026-09-29: 0.275 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Miller, Erik · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 41%41%Whiff: 33%33%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Miller, Erik · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 48.8%Slider: 40.7%4-Seam Fastball: 6.8%Changeup: 3.6% SI49% · 97 mphprimary pitch SI 49%SL 41%FF 7%CH 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Miller, Erik · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 49% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 96.8 mphSI97 mphSlider: 41% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.6 mphSL86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 7% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.8 mphFF97 mphChangeup: 4% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 87.7 mphCH88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 51.4% 312 103 qualified
SL 37.7% 229 102 qualified
FB 5.8% 35 90 limited sample
CH 5.1% 31 86 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 5"
Weight269 lb
Debut2024-03-28
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.93
K% Δ+0.065

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.305
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.275

Miller’s wOBA-against sits at 0.305, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.275 — a gap of 0.030, 1.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 53 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching12026-08-09Contact quality stayed muted throughout the start
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202625.4% K | 3.91 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 @ PIT0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-12 @ BAL0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-08 vs PHI0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-05 vs NYM2 ER / 2 K0.2 IP
2026-04-03 vs NYM2 ER / 1 K0.2 IP