Mithrandir Metrics
Player Colorado Rockies Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Colorado Rockies

Brett Sullivan

C · Bats/Throws L/R · 5' 11", 190 lb · Age 32

Cards
9
Modules
2
Live Δ
yes
Club Colorado Rockies Position C Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2024171310.188.235.375.610
202591100.167.333.167.500
2026237234971.225.268.390.658
4 Seasons349327091.218.262.358.620
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
28
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
32
Defense4 metrics
27
Speed1 metrics
68
Plate skills13 metrics
42
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
xwOBA preseason0.290
xwOBA current pace0.281
xwOBA rolling p500.285
Observed weight53%
xwOBA
0.245 0.264 0.285 0.307 0.326
wOBA
0.282 0.300 0.320 0.340 0.358
ISO
0.110 0.134 0.161 0.188 0.213
K%
15.1% 17.2% 19.6% 21.9% 24.0%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.2%
27
Exit velocity86.6
37
Hard-hit%35.1%
35
xBA0.288
19
xSLG0.433
25
xwOBA0.281
27
BB%5.2%
16
Bat speed66.6
18
K%16.9%
83 +18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.1 · C
57
Catcher Throwing-1.0 · C
25
Framing Runs-4.3 · C
14
Pop Time2.0 · C
14
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.1 · C
68
SB Success Rate50.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-29
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.2% · rebadged research
29
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.0% · rebadged research
31
Changeup Stuff+72
0
Correct Decisions64.7% · rebadged research
33
Mithrandir Stuff+72
3
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · borderline
75
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.252 · insufficient sample
98
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.261 · validated thin sample
89
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
99
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335 · validated
57
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.378 · validated
13
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
23
Slider Stuff+77
1
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Sullivan, Brett · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.301 0.281 2026-09-18: 0.2862026-09-19: 0.2862026-09-20: 0.2862026-09-21: 0.2842026-09-22: 0.2842026-09-23: 0.2842026-09-24: 0.2842026-09-25: 0.2842026-09-26: 0.2832026-09-27: 0.2812026-09-28: 0.2812026-09-29: 0.281 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

2Pitches 2026Season 63%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Sullivan, Brett · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 51%51%Chase: 34%34%Whiff: 15%15%Zone contact: 91%91%Contact: 85%85%Hard hit: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sullivan, Brett · 2026 arsenal snapshot Eephus: 62.8%Other: 37.2% EP63% · 57 mphprimary pitch EP 63%FA 37% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sullivan, Brett · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Eephus: 63% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 69″ drop, 57.5 mphEP57 mphOther: 37% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 68.1 mphFA68 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 59.7% 46 77 limited sample
CH 36.4% 28 72 limited sample
CB 3.9% 3 57 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age32
Height5' 11"
Weight190 lb
Debut2023-04-18
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ+0.017
wOBA Δ+0.055

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.2σ gap
wOBA (actual)0.320
xwOBA (deserved)0.281

Sullivan’s wOBA sits at 0.320, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.281 — a gap of 0.038, -1.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 249 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Hitting22026-08-09Disciplined swing decisions drove the score
Fielding72026-09-091 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.218
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.264 xwOBA | 6 HRProjection
2026-08-15 @ SF0 HR | 0 RBI / 6 Ch | 0 E0-3 | K
2026-05-20 vs TEX0 HR | 0 RBI / 7 Ch | 1 E0-3
2026-04-20 vs LAD0 HR | 0 RBI / 7 Ch | 0 E2-4
2026-04-17 vs LAD0 HR | 0 RBI / 9 Ch | 0 E0-3 | K
2026-04-15 @ HOU0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0-1 | K