Mithrandir Metrics
Player Washington Nationals Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Washington Nationals

Richard Lovelady

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 0", 185 lb · Age 31

Cards
4
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Washington Nationals Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024364.46350234.1261.31
2025018.49100011.2121.54
2026344.11386435.0311.86
7 Seasons8175.0515667146.01331.47
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
21
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
32
Arsenal4 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason3.92
ERA current pace3.71
ERA rolling p503.83
Observed weight42%
ERA
1.89 2.81 3.83 4.85 5.77
FIP
3.19 3.89 4.66 5.44 6.14
K%
15.5% 17.6% 20.0% 22.3% 24.4%
BB%
8.0% 9.3% 10.7% 12.0% 13.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.85
3
ERA3.71
62
BB%13.6%
8 -43 vs proj
K%18.2%
22 -23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.361
9 -42 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.1%
57 +20 vs proj
Fastball velo91.2
8
Hard-hit allowed31.0%
94
Whiff%19.7%
25 -19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-29
Slider Stuff+106
83
Fastball Stuff+100
32
Mithrandir Stuff+103
58
Sinker Stuff+95
12
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lovelady, Richard · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.361 2026-09-18: 0.3562026-09-19: 0.3562026-09-20: 0.3562026-09-21: 0.3522026-09-22: 0.3522026-09-23: 0.3522026-09-24: 0.3522026-09-25: 0.3522026-09-26: 0.3522026-09-27: 0.3612026-09-28: 0.3612026-09-29: 0.361 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lovelady, Richard · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 31%31% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lovelady, Richard · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 43.5%Sinker: 29.5%4-Seam Fastball: 21.9%Slider: 5.0% ST44% · 82 mphprimary pitch ST 44%SI 30%FF 22%SL 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lovelady, Richard · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 44% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 81.8 mphST82 mphSinker: 30% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 91.1 mphSI91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 22% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 91.3 mphFF91 mphSlider: 5% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.7 mphSL87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 49.3% 234 106 qualified
SI 28.4% 135 95 limited sample
FB 22.3% 106 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age31
Height6' 0"
Weight185 lb
Debut2019-04-09
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.25
K% Δ-0.033

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.9σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.424
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.361

Lovelady’s wOBA-against sits at 0.424, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.361 — a gap of 0.063, 1.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 36 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching42026-09-23Stuff and strike quality carried the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.5% K | 3.96 ERAProjection
2026-04-17 vs SF1 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-09 vs AZ0 ER / 1 K1.2 IP
2026-04-03 @ SF1 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-03-31 @ STL1 ER / 2 K2.0 IP
2026-03-29 vs PIT1 ER / 1 K1.0 IP