Mithrandir Metrics
Player San Diego Padres Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / San Diego Padres

Walker Buehler

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 185 lb · Age 32

Cards
31
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club San Diego Padres Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024165.381616075.1641.55
20251074.9326240126.0921.52
2026964.6332320153.21311.35
9 Seasons66353.691891780993.19771.18
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
41
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal7 metrics
32
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.56
ERA current pace4.56
ERA rolling p504.56
Observed weight74%
ERA
3.30 3.89 4.56 5.23 5.83
FIP
3.84 4.25 4.70 5.15 5.56
K%
17.8% 18.7% 19.7% 20.7% 21.7%
BB%
7.4% 8.0% 8.6% 9.2% 9.8%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.41
35
ERA4.56
36
BB%8.6%
53
K%20.3%
36 +22 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.317
45 +17 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.3%
36
Fastball velo94.1
44
Hard-hit allowed38.7%
48
Whiff%18.6%
16
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Cutter Stuff+101
42
Fastball Stuff+102
50
Mithrandir Stuff+100
34
Sinker Stuff+102
44
Slider Stuff+99
26
Changeup Stuff+93
10
Curveball Stuff+100
20
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Buehler, Walker · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.317 2026-09-13: 0.3142026-09-14: 0.3142026-09-18: 0.3182026-09-19: 0.3182026-09-20: 0.3182026-09-21: 0.3152026-09-22: 0.3152026-09-23: 0.3152026-09-24: 0.3152026-09-25: 0.3152026-09-26: 0.3152026-09-27: 0.317 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 24%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Buehler, Walker · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Buehler, Walker · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 23.9%4-Seam Fastball: 20.4%Sinker: 19.0%Slider: 10.5%Changeup: 10.1%Knuckle Curve: 8.8% FC24% · 90 mphprimary pitch FC 24%FF 20%SI 19%SL 10%CH 10%KC 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Buehler, Walker · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 24% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 90.4 mphFC90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.9 mphFF94 mphSinker: 19% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 94.2 mphSI94 mphSlider: 10% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.1 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 89.1 mphCH89 mphKnuckle Curve: 9% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 78.0 mphKC78 mphSweeper: 7% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 82.4 mphST82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 24.6% 412 101 qualified
FB 20.1% 336 102 qualified
SI 19.1% 320 102 qualified
SL 16.8% 281 99 qualified
CB 9.9% 165 100 limited sample
CH 9.6% 160 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age32
Height6' 2"
Weight185 lb
Debut2017-09-07
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.36
K% Δ+0.034

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

2.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.365
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.317

Buehler’s wOBA-against sits at 0.365, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.317 — a gap of 0.049, 2.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 159 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching312026-09-26Stuff and strike quality carried the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202616.9% K | 4.92 ERAProjection
2026-04-05 @ BOS4 ER / 4 K2.2 IP
2026-03-30 vs SF3 ER / 3 K4.0 IP