Mithrandir Metrics
Player San Francisco Giants Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / San Francisco Giants

Adrian Houser

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 4", 227 lb · Age 33

Cards
17
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club San Francisco Giants Position P Roster Current MLB team Status IL-60
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024155.84237169.1451.53
2025853.3121210125.0921.28
2026474.0226160109.2751.30
10 Seasons44514.061991411843.16511.35
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
43
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
37
Arsenal6 metrics
59
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason4.27
ERA current pace4.02
ERA rolling p504.10
Observed weight67%
ERA
2.98 3.51 4.10 4.70 5.23
FIP
3.62 4.01 4.44 4.87 5.27
K%
14.7% 15.6% 16.7% 17.7% 18.6%
BB%
6.1% 6.7% 7.3% 8.0% 8.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.29
58
ERA4.02
51
BB%7.3%
73
K%16.2%
12
xwOBA allowed0.339
23
Barrel allowed8.6%
31
Fastball velo95.1
61
Hard-hit allowed42.7%
20
Whiff%16.1%
6
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-29
Changeup Stuff+99
31
Fastball Stuff+105
69
Mithrandir Stuff+105
74
Sinker Stuff+104
64
Curveball Stuff+100
25
Slider Stuff+109
94
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Houser, Adrian · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.339 2026-09-18: 0.3392026-09-19: 0.3392026-09-20: 0.3392026-09-21: 0.3392026-09-22: 0.3392026-09-23: 0.3392026-09-24: 0.3392026-09-25: 0.3392026-09-26: 0.3392026-09-27: 0.3392026-09-28: 0.3392026-09-29: 0.339 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Houser, Adrian · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Houser, Adrian · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 46.3%4-Seam Fastball: 21.0%Changeup: 15.6%Slider: 10.3%Curveball: 6.9% SI46% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 46%FF 21%CH 16%SL 10%CU 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Houser, Adrian · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 46% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 94.9 mphSI95 mph4-Seam Fastball: 21% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.7 mphFF96 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.3 mphCH85 mphSlider: 10% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 88.4 mphSL88 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 82.2 mphCU82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 45.4% 570 104 qualified
FB 19.4% 244 105 qualified
CH 17.3% 217 99 qualified
SL 10.9% 137 109 limited sample
CB 7.0% 88 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age33
Height6' 4"
Weight227 lb
Debut2015-09-26
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.46
K% Δ-0.007

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.6σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.356
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.339

Houser’s wOBA-against sits at 0.356, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.339 — a gap of 0.017, 0.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 115 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching172026-08-25Command and chase profile drove the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202616.8% K | 4.48 ERAProjection
2026-04-12 @ BAL4 ER / 3 K4.2 IP
2026-04-06 vs PHI4 ER / 3 K6.0 IP
2026-04-01 @ SD1 ER / 4 K5.1 IP