Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	289	25	50	6	8	.184	.221	.294	.515
2025	437	55	107	12	5	.257	.282	.398	.680
2026	196	25	45	3	1	.241	.270	.364	.634
13 Seasons	5314	678	1251	196	116	.251	.291	.431	.722

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27

27

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

34

Defense4 metrics

38

Speed1 metrics

38

Plate skills10 metrics

43

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27

xwOBA preseason	0.293
xwOBA current pace	0.266
xwOBA rolling p50	0.280
Observed weight	49%

xwOBA

0.252 0.265 0.280 0.295 0.308

wOBA

0.282 0.301 0.323 0.344 0.364

ISO

0.104 0.120 0.138 0.156 0.172

K%

19.5% 20.9% 22.5% 24.0% 25.4%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%1.9%

10 -33 vs proj

Exit velocity86.6

36

Hard-hit%36.5%

40

xBA0.311

40

xSLG0.417

19

xwOBA0.266

16 -19 vs proj

BB%3.3%

4

Bat speed72.1

81

K%21.0%

61

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-0.2 · SS

10

Arm Strength92.7 · SS

87

Outs Above Avg-2.0 · SS

19

Range Runs-1.6 · SS

37

Baserunning · percentile strip

Sprint Speed27.0 · SS

38

SB Success Rate33.3% · SS

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-27

Avoids Bad ChasesST 50.4% · rebadged research

5

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.6% · rebadged research

36

Correct Decisions55.9% · rebadged research

3

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.269 · borderline

88

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.255 · insufficient sample

96

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample

77

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.343 · insufficient sample

16

Resists FastballwOBA 0.366 · validated

13

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.334 · validated

90

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline85

5

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Javier Báez's tools (85) outpace production (70) by 15 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects. Also flagged: Launch Angle Too High.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-9.0° Current 29° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

135 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.7σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.323

xwOBA (deserved)0.266

Báez’s wOBA sits at 0.323, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.266 — a gap of 0.056, -1.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 214 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	3	2026-09-21	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.290 xwOBA \| 11 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs CWS0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| K
2026-04-17 @ BOS0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| CS
2026-04-15 vs KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, R
2026-04-14 vs KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	0-3
2026-04-12 vs MIA0 HR \| 1 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, RBI

Age	33
Height	5' 11"
Weight	190 lb
Debut	2014-08-05

xwOBA Δ	-0.024
wOBA Δ	+0.032

Hitter Projections 20260.290 xwOBA \| 11 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs CWS0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| K
2026-04-17 @ BOS0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| CS
2026-04-15 vs KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, R
2026-04-14 vs KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	0-3
2026-04-12 vs MIA0 HR \| 1 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, RBI

Javier Báez

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Module shelf

Available detail