Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	463	50	113	11	13	.264	.307	.381	.688
2025	552	63	129	11	20	.263	.328	.391	.719
2026	606	68	120	13	22	.231	.332	.344	.676
14 Seasons	7675	1016	1942	210	148	.283	.349	.438	.787

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27

58

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

63

Defense4 metrics

66

Speed3 metrics

69

Plate skills10 metrics

56

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27

xwOBA preseason	0.321
xwOBA current pace	0.325
xwOBA rolling p50	0.324
Observed weight	74%

xwOBA

0.304 0.313 0.324 0.334 0.344

wOBA

0.305 0.316 0.329 0.342 0.353

ISO

0.109 0.119 0.129 0.139 0.148

K%

16.2% 17.0% 18.0% 18.9% 19.7%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%4.0%

36

Exit velocity89.8

75

Hard-hit%43.3%

74 +32 vs proj

xBA0.314

46

xSLG0.475

42

xwOBA0.325

72 +15 vs proj

BB%12.5%

90 +57 vs proj

Bat speed70.1

57

K%18.1%

77

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs0.1 · SS

59

Arm Strength85.8 · SS

40

Outs Above Avg3.0 · SS

85

Range Runs2.4 · SS

79

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs2.1 · SS

79

SB Success Rate95.0% · SS

88

Sprint Speed27.1 · SS

41

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-27

Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.7% · rebadged research

78

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.5% · rebadged research

37

Correct Decisions67.6% · rebadged research

65

Resists FastballwOBA 0.354 · validated

24

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357 · validated

49

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105

69

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · borderline

38

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample

49

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.268 · validated thin sample

81

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · insufficient sample

73

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Xander Bogaerts's tools (71) outpace production (69) by 2 points. Primary finding: high exit velocity but low barrel rate — bat-to-ball efficiency is leaving power on the table. Also flagged: Launch Angle Too High; Passive In-Zone Approach.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-17.0° Current 37° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Passive In-Zone Approach

Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

286 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.2σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.329

xwOBA (deserved)0.325

Bogaerts’s wOBA sits at 0.329, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.325 — a gap of 0.004, -0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 623 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Herrera, Iván STL · R	0.74	Barrel rateMax exit velocity	Player · Projection
Springer, George TOR · R	0.70	Whiff rateStrikeout rate	Player · Projection
Chapman, Matt SF · R	0.65	Sweet-spot rateIn-zone contact	Player · Projection
Butler, Lawrence ATH · L	0.65	Ground-ball rateAvg exit velocity	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	4	2026-09-26	Disciplined swing decisions drove the score
Fielding	25	2026-09-26	2 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp +0.222

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.310 xwOBA \| 13 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-3
2026-05-20 vs LAD0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K
2026-04-17 @ LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| BB
2026-04-15 vs SEA1 HR \| 2 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| HR, 2 RBI, R
2026-04-14 vs SEA0 HR \| 3 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	3-4 \| 3 RBI

Age	33
Height	6' 2"
Weight	218 lb
Debut	2013-08-20

xwOBA Δ	+0.015
wOBA Δ	+0.019

Hitter Projections 20260.310 xwOBA \| 13 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-3
2026-05-20 vs LAD0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K
2026-04-17 @ LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| BB
2026-04-15 vs SEA1 HR \| 2 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| HR, 2 RBI, R
2026-04-14 vs SEA0 HR \| 3 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	3-4 \| 3 RBI

Xander Bogaerts

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail