Mithrandir Metrics
Player San Diego Padres Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / San Diego Padres

Robbie Ray

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 2", 220 lb · Age 34

Cards
31
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club San Diego Padres Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024324.7077030.2431.14
20251183.6532320182.11861.21
20261383.5931300165.21401.35
13 Seasons101893.9029629101606.218741.30
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
41
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
43
Arsenal6 metrics
16
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.89
ERA current pace3.59
ERA rolling p503.66
Observed weight76%
ERA
2.17 2.88 3.66 4.45 5.15
FIP
3.30 3.88 4.52 5.16 5.74
K%
19.4% 20.3% 21.4% 22.4% 23.3%
BB%
9.4% 10.0% 10.7% 11.4% 12.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
50
ERA3.59
67
BB%11.6%
21 -30 vs proj
K%20.8%
41 -24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.335
27 -19 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.9%
42
Fastball velo93.0
27
Hard-hit allowed37.0%
61
Whiff%22.9%
52
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+99
31
Fastball Stuff+99
28
Mithrandir Stuff+96
13
Slider Stuff+94
8
Curveball Stuff+98
9
Sinker Stuff+92
6
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ray, Robbie · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.335 2026-09-13: 0.3362026-09-14: 0.3362026-09-18: 0.3342026-09-19: 0.3342026-09-20: 0.3342026-09-21: 0.3342026-09-22: 0.3342026-09-23: 0.3342026-09-24: 0.3352026-09-25: 0.3352026-09-26: 0.3352026-09-27: 0.335 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ray, Robbie · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ray, Robbie · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.5%Slider: 23.8%Changeup: 18.0%Sinker: 14.5%Knuckle Curve: 11.2% FF33% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 33%SL 24%CH 18%SI 15%KC 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ray, Robbie · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.2 mphFF93 mphSlider: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 86.1 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 86.2 mphCH86 mphSinker: 15% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.6 mphSI93 mphKnuckle Curve: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 79.6 mphKC80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 37.4% 661 99 qualified
SL 24.9% 440 94 qualified
CH 18.9% 334 99 qualified
CB 10.1% 179 98 limited sample
SI 8.6% 152 92 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age34
Height6' 2"
Weight220 lb
Debut2014-05-06
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.55
K% Δ-0.032

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.331
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.335

Ray’s wOBA-against sits at 0.331, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.335 — a gap of 0.003, -0.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 171 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching312026-09-23Sinker played up through SI/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202623.9% K | 4.14 ERAProjection
2026-04-14 @ CIN2 ER / 6 K5.0 IP
2026-04-07 vs PHI0 ER / 7 K6.2 IP
2026-04-02 vs NYM2 ER / 7 K5.1 IP
2026-03-27 vs NYY2 ER / 4 K5.1 IP