Mithrandir Metrics
Player Chicago Cubs Refreshed Sep 28 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Chicago Cubs

Matthew Boyd

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 3", 223 lb · Age 35

Cards
30
Modules
2
Live Δ
yes
Club Chicago Cubs Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024222.7288039.2461.13
20251483.2131310179.21541.09
20261053.9122220126.2961.21
12 Seasons70824.5023522101214.211411.27
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
48
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
42
Arsenal6 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28
ERA preseason3.91
ERA current pace3.91
ERA rolling p503.91
Observed weight70%
ERA
2.78 3.32 3.91 4.51 5.04
FIP
3.67 3.96 4.28 4.61 4.90
K%
17.4% 18.3% 19.4% 20.5% 21.5%
BB%
5.9% 6.5% 7.1% 7.7% 8.2%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.28
59
ERA3.91
55
BB%7.5%
70
K%18.5%
24 -20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.330
30
Barrel allowed8.3%
36
Fastball velo92.8
24
Hard-hit allowed39.1%
45
Whiff%20.8%
34
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-28
Changeup Stuff+107
86
Fastball Stuff+101
41
Mithrandir Stuff+102
45
Curveball Stuff+103
67
Sinker Stuff+97
17
Slider Stuff+99
29
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Boyd, Matthew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.330 2026-09-14: 0.3312026-09-18: 0.3312026-09-19: 0.3312026-09-20: 0.3312026-09-21: 0.3322026-09-22: 0.3322026-09-23: 0.3322026-09-24: 0.3322026-09-25: 0.3322026-09-26: 0.3302026-09-27: 0.3302026-09-28: 0.330 2026-09-14 2026-09-28 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Boyd, Matthew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Boyd, Matthew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.1%Changeup: 28.0%Slider: 14.2%Curveball: 12.4%Sinker: 1.4% FF44% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 44%CH 28%SL 14%CU 12%SI 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Boyd, Matthew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.8 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 28% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 78.8 mphCH79 mphSlider: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 83.2 mphSL83 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 73.1 mphCU73 mphSinker: 1% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.9 mphSI92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.9% 479 101 qualified
CH 29.0% 310 107 qualified
SL 12.5% 133 99 limited sample
CB 11.8% 126 103 limited sample
SI 1.9% 20 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age35
Height6' 3"
Weight223 lb
Debut2015-06-27
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.17
K% Δ-0.028

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.335
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.330

Boyd’s wOBA-against sits at 0.335, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.330 — a gap of 0.005, 0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 128 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching292026-09-24Four-Seam Fastball played up through CH/CU tunnel quality
Fielding12026-08-092 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -1.214
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.2% K | 4.08 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 vs STL7 ER / 2 K5.1 IP
2026-04-01 vs LAA1 ER / 10 K5.2 IP
2026-03-26 vs WSH6 ER / 7 K3.2 IP