Mithrandir Metrics
Player Philadelphia Phillies Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Philadelphia Phillies

Zack Wheeler

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 4", 195 lb · Age 36

Cards
23
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Philadelphia Phillies Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241672.5732320200.02240.96
20251052.7124240149.21950.94
20261453.0028280162.01931.05
12 Seasons127803.2631131101890.120131.13
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
85
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
80
Arsenal6 metrics
64
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.08
ERA current pace3.06
ERA rolling p503.07
Observed weight72%
ERA
2.03 2.52 3.07 3.61 4.10
FIP
2.87 3.10 3.34 3.59 3.82
K%
27.1% 28.3% 29.5% 30.8% 31.9%
BB%
5.8% 6.3% 6.9% 7.5% 8.0%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.07
88
ERA3.06
82
BB%7.6%
69 -19 vs proj
K%30.2%
94
xwOBA allowed0.265
92
Barrel allowed6.0%
74 +39 vs proj
Fastball velo95.1
60
Hard-hit allowed35.1%
76
Whiff%28.4%
88 +15 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+110
94
Mithrandir Stuff+106
87
Sinker Stuff+108
89
Slider Stuff+100
36
Curveball Stuff+100
14
Cutter Stuff+103
67
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wheeler, Zack · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.265 2026-09-13: 0.2702026-09-14: 0.2702026-09-18: 0.2682026-09-19: 0.2682026-09-20: 0.2682026-09-21: 0.2682026-09-22: 0.2682026-09-23: 0.2652026-09-24: 0.2652026-09-25: 0.2652026-09-26: 0.2652026-09-27: 0.265 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wheeler, Zack · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 42%42%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wheeler, Zack · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 35.8%Split-Finger: 15.9%Sinker: 15.6%Sweeper: 13.6%Cutter: 10.6%Curveball: 8.5% FF36% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 36%FS 16%SI 16%ST 14%FC 11%CU 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wheeler, Zack · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 36% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.2 mphFF95 mphSplit-Finger: 16% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.4 mphFS87 mphSinker: 16% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 94.8 mphSI95 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 81.3 mphST81 mphCutter: 11% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.9 mphFC91 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 80.0 mphCU80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 42.5% 608 110 qualified
SI 18.9% 271 108 qualified
SL 15.8% 226 100 qualified
FC 12.5% 179 103 limited sample
CB 10.3% 148 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age36
Height6' 4"
Weight195 lb
Debut2013-06-18
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.17
K% Δ+0.027

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.7σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.282
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.265

Wheeler’s wOBA-against sits at 0.282, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.265 — a gap of 0.017, 0.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 154 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching232026-09-22Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/FS tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202627.5% K | 3.23 ERAProjection