Section III · Betting · Consensus surface
Consensus and disagreement.
See where all three models converge and where their probabilities split.
BANDS aligned ≤ 5pp · soft 6-10pp · disagreement > 10pp
ELIGIBLE 1 markets
MIXED 0 rows outside publish bands
VIEW split
Lane Health
2026-09-27
Palantir
21810 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.004
14d stable
Fangorn
21810 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.005
14d error falling
Valinor
16122 props
Brier 0.114
ECE 0.002
14d stable
Palantir
1972 props
Brier 0.248
ECE 0.011
14d error falling
Fangorn
53 props
Brier 0.257
ECE 0.119
sample building
Valinor
1468 props
Brier 0.248
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Palantir
10537 props
Brier 0.239
ECE 0.041
14d error rising
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
850 props
Brier 0.166
ECE 0.036
14d stable
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
1097 props
Brier 0.255
ECE 0.052
14d stable
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
A · Three-lane aligned · spread ≤ 5pp
01
HR · 0.5
James Wood
WSH vs NYM
FULL
16.6% average · market 15.9% 2.8 pts +0.7pp 02 HR · 0.5 Cj Abrams WSH vs NYM
FULL
15.9% average · market 13.3% 0.8 pts +2.7pp 03 HR · 0.5 Brandon Nimmo TEX vs MIN
FULL
15.9% average · market 16.4% 1.3 pts -0.5pp 04 HR · 0.5 Corbin Carroll AZ vs SD
FULL
15.9% average · market 18.4% 1.2 pts -2.5pp 05 HR · 0.5 Fernando Tatis Jr. SD vs AZ
FULL
15.6% average · market 17.2% 0.5 pts -1.7pp 06 HR · 0.5 Elly De La Cruz CIN vs TOR
FULL
15.5% average · market 15.0% 3.0 pts +0.5pp 07 HR · 0.5 Ketel Marte AZ vs SD
FULL
15.5% average · market 21.1% 1.2 pts -5.5pp 08 HR · 0.5 Zach Neto LAA vs SEA
FULL
15.5% average · market 17.1% 3.0 pts -1.6pp 09 HR · 0.5 Wyatt Langford TEX vs MIN
FULL
15.4% average · market 14.4% 1.6 pts +1.1pp 10 HR · 0.5 Mike Trout LAA vs SEA
FULL
15.4% average · market 19.2% 4.2 pts -3.8pp 11 HR · 0.5 Julio Rodríguez SEA vs LAA
FULL
15.2% average · market 18.7% 1.6 pts -3.5pp 12 HR · 0.5 Manny Machado SD vs AZ
FULL
15.2% average · market 18.9% 1.6 pts -3.7pp 13 HR · 0.5 Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY vs BAL
FULL
15.0% average · market 19.2% 2.9 pts -4.2pp 14 HR · 0.5 Cody Bellinger NYY vs BAL
FULL
15.0% average · market 17.7% 1.1 pts -2.7pp 15 HR · 0.5 Corey Seager TEX vs MIN
FULL
15.0% average · market 22.5% 1.1 pts -7.5pp 16 HR · 0.5 Christian Yelich MIL vs STL
FULL
14.9% average · market 17.2% 2.5 pts -2.3pp 17 HR · 0.5 Randy Arozarena SEA vs LAA
FULL
14.8% average · market 14.4% 1.2 pts +0.4pp 18 HR · 0.5 Bryce Harper PHI vs TB
FULL
14.8% average · market 19.6% 0.5 pts -4.8pp 19 HR · 0.5 Willson Contreras BOS vs CHC
FULL
14.7% average · market 16.5% 1.5 pts -1.9pp 20 HR · 0.5 Jackson Merrill SD vs AZ
FULL
14.4% average · market 16.3% 3.7 pts -1.9pp 21 HR · 0.5 Matt Olson ATL vs MIA
FULL
14.3% average · market 21.7% 1.3 pts -7.4pp 22 HR · 0.5 Eugenio Suárez CIN vs TOR
FULL
14.3% average · market 21.7% 1.7 pts -7.4pp 23 HR · 0.5 Evan Carter TEX vs MIN
FULL
14.2% average · market 11.0% 4.9 pts +3.2pp 24 HR · 0.5 Josh Bell MIN vs TEX
FULL
14.1% average · market 15.4% 0.5 pts -1.2pp 25 HR · 0.5 Jo Adell LAA vs SEA
FULL
14.1% average · market 19.6% 4.9 pts -5.5pp 26 HR · 0.5 Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL vs MIA
FULL
14.1% average · market 19.4% 2.4 pts -5.3pp 27 HR · 0.5 Yandy Díaz TB vs PHI
FULL
14.1% average · market 14.9% 3.0 pts -0.9pp 28 HR · 0.5 Kyle Schwarber PHI vs TB
FULL
14.0% average · market 27.0% 1.2 pts -13.0pp 29 HR · 0.5 Josh Naylor SEA vs LAA
FULL
13.8% average · market 16.1% 3.7 pts -2.3pp 30 HR · 0.5 Trea Turner PHI vs TB
FULL
13.6% average · market 14.8% 0.4 pts -1.2pp 31 HR · 0.5 Jonathan Aranda TB vs PHI
FULL
13.5% average · market 12.7% 4.3 pts +0.8pp 32 HR · 0.5 Iván Herrera STL vs MIL
FULL
13.5% average · market 12.5% 3.1 pts +1.0pp 33 HR · 0.5 Ben Rice NYY vs BAL
FULL
13.5% average · market 16.3% 2.5 pts -2.8pp 34 HR · 0.5 Alec Burleson STL vs MIL
FULL
13.4% average · market 13.8% 4.1 pts -0.4pp 35 HR · 0.5 Roman Anthony BOS vs CHC
FULL
13.4% average · market 11.1% 2.1 pts +2.2pp 36 HR · 0.5 Junior Caminero TB vs PHI
FULL
13.3% average · market 22.0% 1.9 pts -8.6pp 37 HR · 0.5 Ozzie Albies ATL vs MIA
FULL
13.3% average · market 14.1% 2.5 pts -0.8pp 38 HR · 0.5 Royce Lewis MIN vs TEX
FULL
13.2% average · market 16.7% 3.5 pts -3.5pp 39 HR · 0.5 Geraldo Perdomo AZ vs SD
FULL
13.1% average · market 9.3% 2.4 pts +3.8pp 40 HR · 0.5 Tyler Stephenson CIN vs TOR
FULL
12.9% average · market 12.3% 2.6 pts +0.6pp 41 HR · 0.5 Austin Riley ATL vs MIA
FULL
12.9% average · market 17.0% 4.7 pts -4.1pp 42 HR · 0.5 Mike Yastrzemski ATL vs MIA
FULL
12.8% average · market 14.1% 1.7 pts -1.3pp 43 HR · 0.5 Daylen Lile WSH vs NYM
FULL
12.8% average · market 10.4% 3.2 pts +2.4pp 44 HR · 0.5 Drake Baldwin ATL vs MIA
FULL
12.7% average · market 16.0% 3.3 pts -3.3pp 45 HR · 0.5 Jake Burger TEX vs MIN
FULL
12.6% average · market 19.2% 4.1 pts -6.6pp 46 HR · 0.5 Jarren Duran BOS vs CHC
FULL
12.5% average · market 10.9% 1.9 pts +1.7pp 47 HR · 0.5 William Contreras MIL vs STL
FULL
12.5% average · market 13.0% 2.6 pts -0.5pp 48 HR · 0.5 Keibert Ruiz WSH vs NYM
FULL
12.4% average · market 9.7% 3.7 pts +2.8pp 49 HR · 0.5 Ryan Jeffers MIN vs TEX
FULL
12.3% average · market 12.9% 2.5 pts -0.6pp 50 HR · 0.5 Cedric Mullins TB vs PHI
FULL
12.2% average · market 14.2% 1.9 pts -2.0pp 51 HR · 0.5 Brandon Marsh PHI vs TB
FULL
11.8% average · market 11.0% 3.2 pts +0.8pp 52 HR · 0.5 Jj Bleday CIN vs TOR
FULL
11.7% average · market 13.4% 1.6 pts -1.7pp 53 HR · 0.5 Brice Turang MIL vs STL
FULL
11.6% average · market 10.0% 3.5 pts +1.6pp 54 HR · 0.5 Jake Cronenworth SD vs AZ
FULL
11.4% average · market 9.6% 3.6 pts +1.8pp 55 HR · 0.5 Alec Bohm PHI vs TB
FULL
11.3% average · market 10.7% 3.9 pts +0.6pp 56 HR · 0.5 Chase Meidroth CWS vs COL
FULL
9.2% average · market 7.7% 3.9 pts +1.5pp
P
15.9
F
15.6
V
18.4
FULL
16.6% average · market 15.9% 2.8 pts +0.7pp 02 HR · 0.5 Cj Abrams WSH vs NYM
P
15.8
F
15.6
V
16.3
FULL
15.9% average · market 13.3% 0.8 pts +2.7pp 03 HR · 0.5 Brandon Nimmo TEX vs MIN
P
16.7
F
15.6
V
15.4
FULL
15.9% average · market 16.4% 1.3 pts -0.5pp 04 HR · 0.5 Corbin Carroll AZ vs SD
P
16.6
F
15.6
V
15.5
FULL
15.9% average · market 18.4% 1.2 pts -2.5pp 05 HR · 0.5 Fernando Tatis Jr. SD vs AZ
P
15.8
F
15.3
V
15.7
FULL
15.6% average · market 17.2% 0.5 pts -1.7pp 06 HR · 0.5 Elly De La Cruz CIN vs TOR
P
17.0
F
15.6
V
14.0
FULL
15.5% average · market 15.0% 3.0 pts +0.5pp 07 HR · 0.5 Ketel Marte AZ vs SD
P
15.1
F
15.3
V
16.3
FULL
15.5% average · market 21.1% 1.2 pts -5.5pp 08 HR · 0.5 Zach Neto LAA vs SEA
P
14.1
F
15.3
V
17.1
FULL
15.5% average · market 17.1% 3.0 pts -1.6pp 09 HR · 0.5 Wyatt Langford TEX vs MIN
P
16.3
F
15.3
V
14.8
FULL
15.4% average · market 14.4% 1.6 pts +1.1pp 10 HR · 0.5 Mike Trout LAA vs SEA
P
13.4
F
15.3
V
17.6
FULL
15.4% average · market 19.2% 4.2 pts -3.8pp 11 HR · 0.5 Julio Rodríguez SEA vs LAA
P
15.1
F
14.4
V
16.0
FULL
15.2% average · market 18.7% 1.6 pts -3.5pp 12 HR · 0.5 Manny Machado SD vs AZ
P
14.8
F
14.5
V
16.1
FULL
15.2% average · market 18.9% 1.6 pts -3.7pp 13 HR · 0.5 Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY vs BAL
P
13.8
F
14.4
V
16.8
FULL
15.0% average · market 19.2% 2.9 pts -4.2pp 14 HR · 0.5 Cody Bellinger NYY vs BAL
P
15.7
F
14.5
V
14.7
FULL
15.0% average · market 17.7% 1.1 pts -2.7pp 15 HR · 0.5 Corey Seager TEX vs MIN
P
14.7
F
14.5
V
15.7
FULL
15.0% average · market 22.5% 1.1 pts -7.5pp 16 HR · 0.5 Christian Yelich MIL vs STL
P
15.8
F
15.6
V
13.4
FULL
14.9% average · market 17.2% 2.5 pts -2.3pp 17 HR · 0.5 Randy Arozarena SEA vs LAA
P
14.4
F
14.4
V
15.6
FULL
14.8% average · market 14.4% 1.2 pts +0.4pp 18 HR · 0.5 Bryce Harper PHI vs TB
P
14.9
F
14.4
V
14.9
FULL
14.8% average · market 19.6% 0.5 pts -4.8pp 19 HR · 0.5 Willson Contreras BOS vs CHC
P
15.3
F
13.8
V
14.9
FULL
14.7% average · market 16.5% 1.5 pts -1.9pp 20 HR · 0.5 Jackson Merrill SD vs AZ
P
15.1
F
12.2
V
15.9
FULL
14.4% average · market 16.3% 3.7 pts -1.9pp 21 HR · 0.5 Matt Olson ATL vs MIA
P
14.2
F
13.8
V
15.1
FULL
14.3% average · market 21.7% 1.3 pts -7.4pp 22 HR · 0.5 Eugenio Suárez CIN vs TOR
P
13.8
F
13.8
V
15.4
FULL
14.3% average · market 21.7% 1.7 pts -7.4pp 23 HR · 0.5 Evan Carter TEX vs MIN
P
16.0
F
15.6
V
11.0
FULL
14.2% average · market 11.0% 4.9 pts +3.2pp 24 HR · 0.5 Josh Bell MIN vs TEX
P
13.9
F
14.4
V
14.1
FULL
14.1% average · market 15.4% 0.5 pts -1.2pp 25 HR · 0.5 Jo Adell LAA vs SEA
P
11.8
F
13.8
V
16.7
FULL
14.1% average · market 19.6% 4.9 pts -5.5pp 26 HR · 0.5 Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL vs MIA
P
13.0
F
13.8
V
15.4
FULL
14.1% average · market 19.4% 2.4 pts -5.3pp 27 HR · 0.5 Yandy Díaz TB vs PHI
P
14.0
F
15.6
V
12.6
FULL
14.1% average · market 14.9% 3.0 pts -0.9pp 28 HR · 0.5 Kyle Schwarber PHI vs TB
P
13.5
F
13.8
V
14.8
FULL
14.0% average · market 27.0% 1.2 pts -13.0pp 29 HR · 0.5 Josh Naylor SEA vs LAA
P
12.0
F
13.8
V
15.7
FULL
13.8% average · market 16.1% 3.7 pts -2.3pp 30 HR · 0.5 Trea Turner PHI vs TB
P
13.4
F
13.8
V
13.6
FULL
13.6% average · market 14.8% 0.4 pts -1.2pp 31 HR · 0.5 Jonathan Aranda TB vs PHI
P
13.7
F
15.6
V
11.3
FULL
13.5% average · market 12.7% 4.3 pts +0.8pp 32 HR · 0.5 Iván Herrera STL vs MIL
P
14.5
F
14.5
V
11.4
FULL
13.5% average · market 12.5% 3.1 pts +1.0pp 33 HR · 0.5 Ben Rice NYY vs BAL
P
12.1
F
14.5
V
13.8
FULL
13.5% average · market 16.3% 2.5 pts -2.8pp 34 HR · 0.5 Alec Burleson STL vs MIL
P
13.7
F
15.3
V
11.2
FULL
13.4% average · market 13.8% 4.1 pts -0.4pp 35 HR · 0.5 Roman Anthony BOS vs CHC
P
12.4
F
14.5
V
13.1
FULL
13.4% average · market 11.1% 2.1 pts +2.2pp 36 HR · 0.5 Junior Caminero TB vs PHI
P
12.6
F
14.5
V
12.9
FULL
13.3% average · market 22.0% 1.9 pts -8.6pp 37 HR · 0.5 Ozzie Albies ATL vs MIA
P
12.0
F
13.4
V
14.5
FULL
13.3% average · market 14.1% 2.5 pts -0.8pp 38 HR · 0.5 Royce Lewis MIN vs TEX
P
11.1
F
13.8
V
14.6
FULL
13.2% average · market 16.7% 3.5 pts -3.5pp 39 HR · 0.5 Geraldo Perdomo AZ vs SD
P
12.9
F
14.4
V
12.0
FULL
13.1% average · market 9.3% 2.4 pts +3.8pp 40 HR · 0.5 Tyler Stephenson CIN vs TOR
P
11.2
F
13.8
V
13.7
FULL
12.9% average · market 12.3% 2.6 pts +0.6pp 41 HR · 0.5 Austin Riley ATL vs MIA
P
10.3
F
13.3
V
15.0
FULL
12.9% average · market 17.0% 4.7 pts -4.1pp 42 HR · 0.5 Mike Yastrzemski ATL vs MIA
P
12.4
F
13.8
V
12.1
FULL
12.8% average · market 14.1% 1.7 pts -1.3pp 43 HR · 0.5 Daylen Lile WSH vs NYM
P
13.9
F
10.7
V
13.6
FULL
12.8% average · market 10.4% 3.2 pts +2.4pp 44 HR · 0.5 Drake Baldwin ATL vs MIA
P
10.5
F
13.8
V
13.7
FULL
12.7% average · market 16.0% 3.3 pts -3.3pp 45 HR · 0.5 Jake Burger TEX vs MIN
P
10.2
F
13.3
V
14.3
FULL
12.6% average · market 19.2% 4.1 pts -6.6pp 46 HR · 0.5 Jarren Duran BOS vs CHC
P
12.6
F
13.4
V
11.5
FULL
12.5% average · market 10.9% 1.9 pts +1.7pp 47 HR · 0.5 William Contreras MIL vs STL
P
11.2
F
13.8
V
12.5
FULL
12.5% average · market 13.0% 2.6 pts -0.5pp 48 HR · 0.5 Keibert Ruiz WSH vs NYM
P
10.1
F
13.8
V
13.4
FULL
12.4% average · market 9.7% 3.7 pts +2.8pp 49 HR · 0.5 Ryan Jeffers MIN vs TEX
P
11.3
F
13.8
V
11.9
FULL
12.3% average · market 12.9% 2.5 pts -0.6pp 50 HR · 0.5 Cedric Mullins TB vs PHI
P
11.4
F
13.3
V
11.8
FULL
12.2% average · market 14.2% 1.9 pts -2.0pp 51 HR · 0.5 Brandon Marsh PHI vs TB
P
10.6
F
13.8
V
10.9
FULL
11.8% average · market 11.0% 3.2 pts +0.8pp 52 HR · 0.5 Jj Bleday CIN vs TOR
P
12.3
F
10.7
V
12.1
FULL
11.7% average · market 13.4% 1.6 pts -1.7pp 53 HR · 0.5 Brice Turang MIL vs STL
P
10.9
F
13.8
V
10.2
FULL
11.6% average · market 10.0% 3.5 pts +1.6pp 54 HR · 0.5 Jake Cronenworth SD vs AZ
P
11.3
F
13.3
V
9.7
FULL
11.4% average · market 9.6% 3.6 pts +1.8pp 55 HR · 0.5 Alec Bohm PHI vs TB
P
9.4
F
13.3
V
11.1
FULL
11.3% average · market 10.7% 3.9 pts +0.6pp 56 HR · 0.5 Chase Meidroth CWS vs COL
P
6.8
F
10.7
V
10.2
FULL
9.2% average · market 7.7% 3.9 pts +1.5pp
B · Soft consensus · spread 6-10pp
01
HR · 0.5
Cal Raleigh
SEA vs LAA
FULL
14.2% average · market 25.6% 5.1 pts -11.5pp 02 HR · 0.5 Austin Hays CWS vs COL
FULL
13.0% average · market 11.7% 5.6 pts +1.4pp 03 HR · 0.5 Andrew Benintendi CWS vs COL
FULL
12.3% average · market 11.7% 5.0 pts +0.6pp 04 HR · 0.5 Luke Keaschall MIN vs TEX
FULL
8.6% average · market 11.4% 5.6 pts -2.8pp
P
13.5
F
12.0
V
17.1
FULL
14.2% average · market 25.6% 5.1 pts -11.5pp 02 HR · 0.5 Austin Hays CWS vs COL
P
14.1
F
15.3
V
9.7
FULL
13.0% average · market 11.7% 5.6 pts +1.4pp 03 HR · 0.5 Andrew Benintendi CWS vs COL
P
12.9
F
14.5
V
9.5
FULL
12.3% average · market 11.7% 5.0 pts +0.6pp 04 HR · 0.5 Luke Keaschall MIN vs TEX
P
9.6
F
5.3
V
10.9
FULL
8.6% average · market 11.4% 5.6 pts -2.8pp
C · Disagreement watch · spread > 10pp
01
HR · 0.5
Victor Scott II
STL vs MIL
FULL
Valinor sees 10.4%; Fangorn sees 0.0%; gap of 10.4 pts. Market fair: 7.7%. 10.4 pts -2.8pp 02 HR · 0.5 Chandler Simpson TB vs PHI
FULL
Valinor sees 10.2%; Fangorn sees 0.0%; gap of 10.2 pts. Market fair: 8.0%. 10.2 pts -3.9pp 03 HR · 0.5 Luke Keaschall MIN vs TEX
FULL
Valinor sees 10.9%; Fangorn sees 5.3%; gap of 5.6 pts. Market fair: 11.0%. 5.6 pts -2.4pp 04 HR · 0.5 Austin Hays CWS vs COL
FULL
Fangorn sees 15.3%; Valinor sees 9.7%; gap of 5.6 pts. Market fair: 11.7%. 5.6 pts +1.3pp 05 HR · 0.5 Cal Raleigh SEA vs LAA
FULL
Valinor sees 17.1%; Fangorn sees 12.0%; gap of 5.1 pts. Market fair: 25.1%. 5.1 pts -10.9pp 06 HR · 0.5 Andrew Benintendi CWS vs COL
FULL
Fangorn sees 14.5%; Valinor sees 9.5%; gap of 5.0 pts. Market fair: 11.7%. 5.0 pts +0.6pp
P
4.5
F
0.0
V
10.4
FULL
Valinor sees 10.4%; Fangorn sees 0.0%; gap of 10.4 pts. Market fair: 7.7%. 10.4 pts -2.8pp 02 HR · 0.5 Chandler Simpson TB vs PHI
P
2.1
F
0.0
V
10.2
FULL
Valinor sees 10.2%; Fangorn sees 0.0%; gap of 10.2 pts. Market fair: 8.0%. 10.2 pts -3.9pp 03 HR · 0.5 Luke Keaschall MIN vs TEX
P
9.6
F
5.3
V
10.9
FULL
Valinor sees 10.9%; Fangorn sees 5.3%; gap of 5.6 pts. Market fair: 11.0%. 5.6 pts -2.4pp 04 HR · 0.5 Austin Hays CWS vs COL
P
14.1
F
15.3
V
9.7
FULL
Fangorn sees 15.3%; Valinor sees 9.7%; gap of 5.6 pts. Market fair: 11.7%. 5.6 pts +1.3pp 05 HR · 0.5 Cal Raleigh SEA vs LAA
P
13.5
F
12.0
V
17.1
FULL
Valinor sees 17.1%; Fangorn sees 12.0%; gap of 5.1 pts. Market fair: 25.1%. 5.1 pts -10.9pp 06 HR · 0.5 Andrew Benintendi CWS vs COL
P
12.9
F
14.5
V
9.5
FULL
Fangorn sees 14.5%; Valinor sees 9.5%; gap of 5.0 pts. Market fair: 11.7%. 5.0 pts +0.6pp
D · Coverage transparency