Mithrandir Metrics
Player BOS Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / BOS

Payton Tolle

Player · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 6", 250 lb · Age 23

Cards
22
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club BOS Position -- Roster profile Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025016.0673016.1191.59
2026963.0326260148.21711.10
2 Seasons973.3333290165.01901.15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
87
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
81
Arsenal6 metrics
73
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason3.86
ERA current pace3.03
ERA rolling p503.26
Observed weight72%
ERA
1.95 2.57 3.26 3.95 4.57
FIP
2.41 2.84 3.32 3.80 4.23
K%
24.1% 25.4% 26.8% 28.3% 29.5%
BB%
6.1% 6.7% 7.4% 8.1% 8.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.11
85
ERA3.03
82
BB%6.5%
85 +41 vs proj
K%28.4%
88 +35 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.255
95 +35 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.9%
76 +26 vs proj
Fastball velo95.7
70
Hard-hit allowed34.6%
79
Whiff%25.0%
67
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-29
Cutter Stuff+104
79
Fastball Stuff+107
82
Mithrandir Stuff+107
93
Sinker Stuff+108
86
Changeup Stuff+100
38
Curveball Stuff+103
62
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Tolle, Payton · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.255 2026-09-18: 0.2532026-09-19: 0.2532026-09-20: 0.2532026-09-21: 0.2532026-09-22: 0.2532026-09-23: 0.2552026-09-24: 0.2552026-09-25: 0.2552026-09-26: 0.2552026-09-27: 0.2552026-09-28: 0.2552026-09-29: 0.255 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Tolle, Payton · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 53%53%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Tolle, Payton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.4%Sinker: 23.9%Cutter: 19.5%Curveball: 9.4%Changeup: 2.9% FF44% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 44%SI 24%FC 19%CU 9%CH 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Tolle, Payton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.1 mphFF96 mphSinker: 24% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 94.8 mphSI95 mphCutter: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 88.6 mphFC89 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 82.9 mphCU83 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.7 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 41.5% 579 107 qualified
SI 25.6% 358 108 qualified
FC 19.3% 270 104 qualified
CB 10.5% 147 103 limited sample
CH 3.0% 42 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.33
K% Δ+0.060

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.9σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.302
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.255

Tolle’s wOBA-against sits at 0.302, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.255 — a gap of 0.047, 1.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 150 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching222026-09-22Sinker played up through FF/FC tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202622.4% K | 4.36 ERAProjection