Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 22 |
| Height | 5' 11" |
| Weight | 200 lb |
| Debut | 2024-04-10 |
Player profile / Baltimore Orioles
Jackson Holliday
2B · Bats/Throws L/R · 5' 11", 200 lb · Age 22
Club Baltimore Orioles
Position 2B
Roster Current MLB team
Status IL-10
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 208 | 28 | 36 | 5 | 4 | .189 | .255 | .311 | .566 |
| 2025 | 649 | 70 | 142 | 17 | 17 | .242 | .314 | .375 | .689 |
| 2026 | 354 | 45 | 72 | 7 | 8 | .229 | .300 | .340 | .640 |
| 3 Seasons | 1211 | 143 | 250 | 29 | 29 | .229 | .300 | .354 | .654 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
40
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.328 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.293 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.306 |
| Observed weight | 62% |
xwOBA
0.279
0.292
0.306
0.320
0.333
wOBA
0.259
0.274
0.290
0.306
0.321
ISO
0.107
0.119
0.134
0.148
0.161
K%
20.5%
21.7%
23.0%
24.4%
25.6%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.2%
40
-30 vs proj
Exit velocity86.6
36
Hard-hit%33.1%
27
-52 vs proj
xBA0.322
55
xSLG0.480
44
xwOBA0.293
37
-29 vs proj
BB%9.6%
65
Bat speed68.4
33
K%23.7%
47
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · 2B
80
Arm Strength85.9 · 2B
41
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 2B
27
Range Runs-1.3 · 2B
40
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts7.0 · 2B
54
SB Success Rate75.0% · 2B
35
Sprint Speed28.9 · 2B
88
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.1% · rebadged research
69
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.1% · rebadged research
81
Correct Decisions68.6% · rebadged research
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.267 · borderline
89
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · insufficient sample
82
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283 · validated thin sample
37
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.322 · insufficient sample
57
Resists FastballwOBA 0.308 · validated
93
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357 · validated
50
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
83
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
127 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.024 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.027 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Holliday’s wOBA sits at 0.290, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.293 — a gap of 0.003, 0.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 355 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Young, Jacob WSH · R | 0.69 | Barrel rateSwing length | Player · Projection |
| Winn, Masyn STL · R | 0.66 | Ground-ball rateWalk rate | Player · Projection |
| Benge, Carson NYM · L | 0.63 | Ground-ball rateBat speed | Player · Projection |
| Ewing, A.J. NYM · L | 0.63 | Chase rateIn-zone contact | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 3 | 2026-09-01 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
| Fielding | 28 | 2026-09-14 | 1 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.218 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.317 xwOBA | 15 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 @ TB0 HR | 0 RBI / 6 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2B, 2 K |
| 2026-05-20 @ TB0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | 2 K |