Mithrandir Metrics
Player STL Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / STL

Matt Svanson

Player · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 5", 235 lb · Age 27

Cards
1
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club STL Position -- Roster profile Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025401.94390060.1680.88
2026237.27411043.1411.75
2 Seasons634.178010103.21091.24
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
18
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
28
Arsenal4 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason3.94
ERA current pace7.27
ERA rolling p505.50
Observed weight47%
ERA
3.75 4.58 5.50 6.43 7.26
FIP
3.28 3.59 3.93 4.27 4.58
K%
19.0% 21.0% 23.2% 25.4% 27.3%
BB%
6.7% 7.9% 9.2% 10.5% 11.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.68
8
ERA7.27
2
BB%9.9%
39
K%19.7%
34 -36 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.369
6 -41 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.8%
63 +27 vs proj
Fastball velo96.2
77
Hard-hit allowed43.9%
15
Whiff%15.6%
4 -29 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-29
Sinker Stuff+100
35
Cutter Stuff+104
80
Mithrandir Stuff+103
57
Slider Stuff+98
23
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Svanson, Matt · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.369 2026-09-18: 0.3692026-09-19: 0.3692026-09-20: 0.3692026-09-21: 0.3692026-09-22: 0.3692026-09-23: 0.3692026-09-24: 0.3692026-09-25: 0.3692026-09-26: 0.3692026-09-27: 0.3692026-09-28: 0.3692026-09-29: 0.369 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Svanson, Matt · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Svanson, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 44.7%Sweeper: 32.5%Cutter: 21.7%4-Seam Fastball: 1.1% SI45% · 96 mphprimary pitch SI 45%ST 33%FC 22%FF 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Svanson, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Sinker: 45% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 96.2 mphSI96 mphSweeper: 33% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 86.6 mphST87 mphCutter: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 92.0 mphFC92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 1% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 96.4 mphFF96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 47.6% 229 100 qualified
SL 31.2% 150 98 limited sample
FC 21.2% 102 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+3.70
K% Δ-0.052

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.374
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.369

Svanson’s wOBA-against sits at 0.374, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.369 — a gap of 0.005, 0.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 45 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching12026-07-07Command and chase profile drove the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202625.0% K | 3.57 ERAProjection