Mithrandir Metrics
Player Athletics Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Athletics

Chris Roycroft

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 8", 230 lb · Age 29

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Athletics Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024124.19270034.1331.40
2025137.84200020.2151.84
2026206.57270138.1291.90
3 Seasons455.98740193.1771.70
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
9
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
17
Arsenal5 metrics
50
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason4.28
ERA current pace6.27
ERA rolling p505.18
Observed weight45%
ERA
3.31 4.20 5.18 6.16 7.04
FIP
4.23 4.77 5.37 5.97 6.50
K%
13.3% 15.5% 17.8% 20.2% 22.3%
BB%
8.0% 9.4% 11.0% 12.6% 14.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.91
1
ERA6.27
8
BB%11.6%
21
K%15.7%
9 -34 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.375
4 -35 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.1%
14 -49 vs proj
Fastball velo95.9
74
Hard-hit allowed43.2%
18
Whiff%15.1%
3 -45 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-29
Cutter Stuff+101
49
Fastball Stuff+97
18
Mithrandir Stuff+102
51
Sinker Stuff+100
33
Slider Stuff+113
99
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Roycroft, Chris · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.375 2026-09-18: 0.3712026-09-19: 0.3712026-09-20: 0.3712026-09-21: 0.3632026-09-22: 0.3632026-09-23: 0.3632026-09-24: 0.3632026-09-25: 0.3632026-09-26: 0.3702026-09-27: 0.3702026-09-28: 0.3752026-09-29: 0.375 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Roycroft, Chris · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 15%15%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Roycroft, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 49.7%4-Seam Fastball: 23.5%Cutter: 20.2%Sweeper: 5.9%Changeup: 0.7% SI50% · 96 mphprimary pitch SI 50%FF 24%FC 20%ST 6%CH 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Roycroft, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Sinker: 50% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 96.3 mphSI96 mph4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 95.0 mphFF95 mphCutter: 20% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 89.1 mphFC89 mphSweeper: 6% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.0 mphST86 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 89.7 mphCH90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 46.9% 169 100 limited sample
FB 28.3% 102 97 limited sample
FC 17.8% 64 101 limited sample
SL 6.7% 24 113 limited sample
CH 0.3% 1 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age29
Height6' 8"
Weight230 lb
Debut2024-05-07
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.87
K% Δ-0.056

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.9σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.438
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.375

Roycroft’s wOBA-against sits at 0.438, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.375 — a gap of 0.063, 1.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 40 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.3% K | 4.40 ERAProjection
2026-04-04 @ DET2 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-03 @ DET0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-01 vs NYM0 ER / 0 K0.1 IP
2026-03-29 vs TB2 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-03-26 vs TB1 ER / 0 K0.1 IP