Mithrandir Metrics
Player SF Refreshed Sep 30 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / SF

Trevor McDonald

Player · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 0", 205 lb · Age 25

Cards
10
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club SF Position -- Roster profile Status IL-60
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024000.001003.010.33
2025101.8032015.0141.00
2026375.121414070.1571.31
3 Seasons474.381816088.1721.22
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-30
44
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal4 metrics
50
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-30
ERA preseason3.35
ERA current pace5.12
ERA rolling p504.36
Observed weight57%
ERA
2.62 3.45 4.36 5.28 6.11
FIP
2.83 3.30 3.83 4.36 4.84
K%
15.9% 17.5% 19.3% 21.1% 22.7%
BB%
4.8% 5.7% 6.8% 7.8% 8.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-30
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.36
45
ERA5.12
24
BB%7.1%
75
K%18.6%
26 -17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.311
51 +18 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.9%
87 +49 vs proj
Fastball velo93.4
33
Hard-hit allowed38.6%
49
Whiff%20.7%
33 -26 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-30
Mithrandir Stuff+104
68
Sinker Stuff+105
71
Slider Stuff+102
52
Changeup Stuff+94
11
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed McDonald, Trevor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.311 2026-09-19: 0.3122026-09-20: 0.3122026-09-21: 0.3122026-09-22: 0.3122026-09-23: 0.3122026-09-24: 0.3122026-09-25: 0.3122026-09-26: 0.3112026-09-27: 0.3112026-09-28: 0.3112026-09-29: 0.3112026-09-30: 0.311 2026-09-19 2026-09-30 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 57%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile McDonald, Trevor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McDonald, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 57.5%Slider: 26.2%Changeup: 14.6%4-Seam Fastball: 0.9%Cutter: 0.8% SI57% · 93 mphprimary pitch SI 57%SL 26%CH 15%FF 1%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McDonald, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 57% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 93.4 mphSI93 mphSlider: 26% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 85.8 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 83.8 mphCH84 mph4-Seam Fastball: 1% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphCutter: 1% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 90.0 mphFC90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 59.2% 450 105 qualified
SL 27.1% 206 102 qualified
CH 13.4% 102 94 limited sample
FC 0.3% 2 15 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.72
K% Δ-0.026

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.8σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.363
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.311

McDonald’s wOBA-against sits at 0.363, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.311 — a gap of 0.052, 1.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 72 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching102026-07-20Sinker played up through SI/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

No projection links or recent game log rows are available yet.