Mithrandir Metrics
Player Houston Astros Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Houston Astros

Hunter Brown

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 220 lb · Age 28

Cards
23
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Houston Astros Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241193.4931300170.01791.27
20251292.4331310185.12061.03
2026643.1920200107.11241.27
5 Seasons42353.441201120638.27091.22
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
63
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
66
Arsenal7 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.45
ERA current pace3.19
ERA rolling p503.28
Observed weight66%
ERA
2.35 2.79 3.28 3.77 4.21
FIP
3.06 3.33 3.64 3.95 4.23
K%
24.8% 25.9% 27.2% 28.5% 29.6%
BB%
9.3% 10.0% 10.8% 11.6% 12.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.32
54
ERA3.19
78
BB%12.3%
16 -47 vs proj
K%27.5%
84
xwOBA allowed0.282
83
Barrel allowed5.8%
78 +24 vs proj
Fastball velo96.1
76
Hard-hit allowed37.8%
55
Whiff%25.0%
68
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+102
51
Mithrandir Stuff+103
64
Sinker Stuff+103
57
Changeup Stuff+100
39
Curveball Stuff+102
44
Cutter Stuff+105
84
Slider Stuff+106
80
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Brown, Hunter · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.282 2026-09-13: 0.2852026-09-14: 0.2852026-09-18: 0.2822026-09-19: 0.2822026-09-20: 0.2822026-09-21: 0.2792026-09-22: 0.2792026-09-23: 0.2792026-09-24: 0.2792026-09-25: 0.2792026-09-26: 0.2822026-09-27: 0.282 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Brown, Hunter · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Brown, Hunter · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 30.7%4-Seam Fastball: 30.4%Knuckle Curve: 18.2%Slider: 8.9%Changeup: 8.9%Cutter: 1.9% SI31% · 96 mphprimary pitch SI 31%FF 30%KC 18%SL 9%CH 9%FC 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Brown, Hunter · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 31% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 96.0 mphSI96 mph4-Seam Fastball: 30% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.2 mphFF96 mphKnuckle Curve: 18% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 83.4 mphKC83 mphSlider: 9% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 90.7 mphSL91 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 87.6 mphCH88 mphCutter: 2% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 93.0 mphFC93 mphSlurve: 1% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 86.9 mphSV87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 34.8% 394 103 qualified
FB 28.0% 317 102 qualified
CB 15.6% 177 102 limited sample
SL 11.0% 124 106 limited sample
CH 8.2% 93 100 limited sample
FC 2.3% 26 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 2"
Weight220 lb
Debut2022-09-05
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.07
K% Δ+0.011

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.316
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.282

Brown’s wOBA-against sits at 0.316, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.282 — a gap of 0.034, 1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 109 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching232026-09-25Sinker played up through SI/SV tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202626.5% K | 3.26 ERAProjection
2026-03-31 vs BOS1 ER / 8 K6.0 IP
2026-03-26 vs LAA0 ER / 9 K4.2 IP