Mithrandir Metrics
Player Pittsburgh Pirates Refreshed Sep 28 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Pittsburgh Pirates

Jared Jones

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 0", 211 lb · Age 25

Cards
16
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Pittsburgh Pirates Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024684.1422220121.21321.19
2026563.7221210101.21231.08
2 Seasons11143.9543430223.12551.14
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
78
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
76
Arsenal5 metrics
84
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28
ERA preseason4.17
ERA current pace3.87
ERA rolling p503.98
Observed weight63%
ERA
2.99 3.46 3.98 4.50 4.96
FIP
2.99 3.23 3.48 3.74 3.97
K%
24.4% 25.7% 27.0% 28.4% 29.6%
BB%
6.0% 6.6% 7.3% 7.9% 8.5%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.09
87
ERA3.87
56
BB%7.5%
71
K%29.6%
91 +33 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.276
86 +40 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.4%
51 +20 vs proj
Fastball velo98.2
95
Hard-hit allowed37.6%
56
Whiff%29.7%
92 +19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-28
Fastball Stuff+107
84
Mithrandir Stuff+108
94
Slider Stuff+111
98
Changeup Stuff+102
51
Curveball Stuff+106
93
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Jones, Jared · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.276 2026-09-14: 0.2872026-09-18: 0.2872026-09-19: 0.2872026-09-20: 0.2872026-09-21: 0.2872026-09-22: 0.2872026-09-23: 0.2812026-09-24: 0.2812026-09-25: 0.2812026-09-26: 0.2812026-09-27: 0.2812026-09-28: 0.276 2026-09-14 2026-09-28 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 47%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Jones, Jared · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Jones, Jared · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 46.6%Slider: 34.0%Changeup: 11.1%Curveball: 8.3% FF47% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 47%SL 34%CH 11%CU 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Jones, Jared · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 47% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 98.2 mphFF98 mphSlider: 34% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 89.9 mphSL90 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 92.8 mphCH93 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 85.7 mphCU86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.2% 350 107 qualified
SL 32.4% 235 111 qualified
CH 13.1% 95 102 limited sample
CB 6.3% 46 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age25
Height6' 0"
Weight211 lb
Debut2024-03-30
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.46
K% Δ+0.064

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.4σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.288
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.276

Jones’s wOBA-against sits at 0.288, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.276 — a gap of 0.011, 0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 101 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching162026-09-27Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202623.1% K | 4.33 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 vs BOS1 ER / 7 K5.0 IP