Mithrandir Metrics
Player Athletics Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Athletics

Jacob Lopez

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 4", 220 lb · Age 28

Cards
25
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Athletics Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024005.2341010.181.16
2025774.082117092.21131.27
2026755.4727240123.11121.49
4 Seasons15124.8656431238.22411.38
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
34
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
41
Arsenal6 metrics
43
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.26
ERA current pace5.47
ERA rolling p505.11
Observed weight70%
ERA
3.70 4.37 5.11 5.85 6.51
FIP
3.89 4.39 4.95 5.50 6.00
K%
19.3% 20.3% 21.4% 22.5% 23.5%
BB%
8.7% 9.4% 10.2% 11.0% 11.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.56
15
ERA5.47
17
BB%11.0%
26 -30 vs proj
K%20.3%
37 -33 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.295
73 +26 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.0%
58
Fastball velo90.3
4
Hard-hit allowed31.7%
92
Whiff%22.3%
48
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Cutter Stuff+101
44
Fastball Stuff+100
31
Mithrandir Stuff+101
37
Slider Stuff+101
41
Changeup Stuff+103
58
Sinker Stuff+102
47
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lopez, Jacob · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.295 2026-09-13: 0.2902026-09-14: 0.2902026-09-18: 0.2902026-09-19: 0.2902026-09-20: 0.2902026-09-21: 0.2962026-09-22: 0.2962026-09-23: 0.2962026-09-24: 0.2962026-09-25: 0.2962026-09-26: 0.2952026-09-27: 0.295 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lopez, Jacob · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lopez, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.7%Slider: 33.8%Cutter: 20.0%Changeup: 8.7%Sinker: 2.9% FF35% · 90 mphprimary pitch FF 35%SL 34%FC 20%CH 9%SI 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lopez, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 35% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 90.3 mphFF90 mphSlider: 34% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 76.2 mphSL76 mphCutter: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 86.2 mphFC86 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 82.4 mphCH82 mphSinker: 3% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.8 mphSI90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 33.6% 543 100 qualified
SL 32.8% 530 101 qualified
FC 20.6% 333 101 qualified
CH 9.6% 155 103 limited sample
SI 3.4% 55 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 4"
Weight220 lb
Debut2023-08-14
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.52
K% Δ-0.045

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

3.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.371
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.295

Lopez’s wOBA-against sits at 0.371, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.295 — a gap of 0.076, 3.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 123 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching252026-09-25Slider played up through SL/CH tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.9% K | 3.95 ERAProjection
2026-04-11 @ NYM5 ER / 5 K5.0 IP
2026-04-05 vs HOU3 ER / 6 K4.1 IP
2026-03-30 @ ATL3 ER / 0 K4.0 IP