Mithrandir Metrics
Player KC Refreshed Sep 28 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / KC

Randy Dobnak

Player · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 230 lb · Age 31

Cards
15
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club KC Position -- Roster profile Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024005.595009.271.66
2025001.691005.110.75
2026353.511513074.1491.40
6 Seasons12174.4054342215.01341.38
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
41
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
37
Arsenal5 metrics
38
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28
ERA preseason4.35
ERA current pace3.51
ERA rolling p503.86
Observed weight59%
ERA
2.37 3.07 3.86 4.64 5.34
FIP
3.12 3.61 4.15 4.70 5.19
K%
11.4% 13.0% 14.7% 16.4% 17.9%
BB%
5.9% 6.8% 7.7% 8.7% 9.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.41
34
ERA3.51
70
BB%7.6%
68
K%15.0%
6
xwOBA allowed0.336
26 -28 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.1%
84 +20 vs proj
Fastball velo91.7
12
Hard-hit allowed41.7%
27
Whiff%17.5%
11
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-28
Mithrandir Stuff+101
39
Sinker Stuff+104
67
Changeup Stuff+98
28
Fastball Stuff+101
40
Slider Stuff+97
17
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Dobnak, Randy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.336 2026-09-14: 0.3252026-09-18: 0.3252026-09-19: 0.3302026-09-20: 0.3292026-09-21: 0.3292026-09-22: 0.3292026-09-23: 0.3292026-09-24: 0.3292026-09-25: 0.3292026-09-26: 0.3362026-09-27: 0.3362026-09-28: 0.336 2026-09-14 2026-09-28 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Dobnak, Randy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Dobnak, Randy · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 38.4%Sweeper: 25.2%Changeup: 22.0%4-Seam Fastball: 9.7%Slider: 4.8% SI38% · 92 mphprimary pitch SI 38%ST 25%CH 22%FF 10%SL 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Dobnak, Randy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 38% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 91.5 mphSI92 mphSweeper: 25% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 82.4 mphST82 mphChangeup: 22% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 84.8 mphCH85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 10% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.3 mphFF92 mphSlider: 5% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 83.7 mphSL84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 37.2% 223 104 qualified
SL 29.8% 179 97 limited sample
CH 22.3% 134 98 limited sample
FB 10.7% 64 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.85
K% Δ-0.006

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.346
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.336

Dobnak’s wOBA-against sits at 0.346, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.336 — a gap of 0.009, 0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 76 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching152026-09-24Changeup played up through CH/SI tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202615.6% K | 4.36 ERAProjection