Mithrandir Metrics
Player Pittsburgh Pirates Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Pittsburgh Pirates

Braxton Ashcraft

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 5", 218 lb · Age 26

Cards
27
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Pittsburgh Pirates Position P Roster Current MLB team Status IL-15
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025442.71268069.2711.25
20261463.6528280165.11731.09
2 Seasons18103.3754360235.02441.14
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
81
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
72
Arsenal5 metrics
89
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.97
ERA current pace3.65
ERA rolling p503.73
Observed weight74%
ERA
2.55 3.11 3.73 4.35 4.91
FIP
2.59 3.03 3.52 4.01 4.45
K%
23.6% 24.6% 25.7% 26.8% 27.8%
BB%
4.9% 5.4% 6.0% 6.6% 7.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.09
87
ERA3.65
64
BB%5.1%
95 +39 vs proj
K%26.2%
78 +22 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.287
79 +21 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.5%
67
Fastball velo97.2
89
Hard-hit allowed41.6%
28
Whiff%23.6%
59
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Curveball Stuff+106
95
Fastball Stuff+107
85
Mithrandir Stuff+108
95
Sinker Stuff+108
87
Slider Stuff+107
85
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ashcraft, Braxton · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.287 2026-09-13: 0.2872026-09-14: 0.2872026-09-18: 0.2872026-09-19: 0.2872026-09-20: 0.2872026-09-21: 0.2872026-09-22: 0.2872026-09-23: 0.2872026-09-24: 0.2872026-09-25: 0.2872026-09-26: 0.2872026-09-27: 0.287 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ashcraft, Braxton · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashcraft, Braxton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 30.2%Curveball: 26.4%Slider: 22.5%Sinker: 16.8%Split-Finger: 4.1% FF30% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 30%CU 26%SL 22%SI 17%FS 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashcraft, Braxton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 30% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 97.3 mphFF97 mphCurveball: 26% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 85.0 mphCU85 mphSlider: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 91.8 mphSL92 mphSinker: 17% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 97.0 mphSI97 mphSplit-Finger: 4% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 91.8 mphFS92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 30.7% 431 107 qualified
CB 26.8% 377 106 qualified
SL 24.0% 337 107 qualified
SI 18.6% 261 108 qualified
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age26
Height6' 5"
Weight218 lb
Debut2025-05-26
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.56
K% Δ+0.033

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.313
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.287

Ashcraft’s wOBA-against sits at 0.313, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.287 — a gap of 0.026, 1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 170 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching272026-09-05Command and chase profile drove the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202622.9% K | 4.21 ERAProjection
2026-04-11 @ CHC1 ER / 9 K5.0 IP
2026-04-05 vs BAL1 ER / 8 K6.0 IP
2026-03-30 @ CIN2 ER / 3 K6.0 IP