Mithrandir Metrics
Player Washington Nationals Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Washington Nationals

Cade Cavalli

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 4", 223 lb · Age 28

Cards
31
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Washington Nationals Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20220114.541104.161.85
2025314.251010048.2401.48
20261353.0232320169.22001.16
3 Seasons1673.5243430222.22461.24
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
80
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
71
Arsenal7 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.11
ERA current pace3.02
ERA rolling p503.29
Observed weight75%
ERA
2.13 2.68 3.29 3.90 4.45
FIP
2.56 2.92 3.33 3.73 4.09
K%
23.1% 24.1% 25.3% 26.4% 27.4%
BB%
5.5% 6.0% 6.6% 7.2% 7.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.16
79
ERA3.02
82
BB%6.6%
83
K%27.7%
85 +56 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.296
73
Barrel allowed7.2%
54
Fastball velo96.6
83
Hard-hit allowed40.3%
36
Whiff%24.3%
62
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Curveball Stuff+103
62
Fastball Stuff+103
59
Mithrandir Stuff+103
57
Sinker Stuff+104
64
Slider Stuff+100
32
Changeup Stuff+102
48
Cutter Stuff+108
97
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cavalli, Cade · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.296 2026-09-13: 0.2982026-09-14: 0.2982026-09-18: 0.2982026-09-19: 0.2962026-09-20: 0.2962026-09-21: 0.2962026-09-22: 0.2962026-09-23: 0.2962026-09-24: 0.2962026-09-25: 0.2962026-09-26: 0.2962026-09-27: 0.296 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cavalli, Cade · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cavalli, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.6%Knuckle Curve: 26.5%Sweeper: 14.2%Sinker: 12.6%Changeup: 7.7%Cutter: 6.4% FF33% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 33%KC 27%ST 14%SI 13%CH 8%FC 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cavalli, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 96.8 mphFF97 mphKnuckle Curve: 27% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 86.2 mphKC86 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 86.3 mphST86 mphSinker: 13% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 96.1 mphSI96 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.1 mphCH89 mphCutter: 6% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.5 mphFC94 mphSlow Curve: 0% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 77.6 mphCS78 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 92.1 mphPO92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 32.5% 702 103 qualified
CB 28.3% 612 103 qualified
SL 14.7% 317 100 qualified
SI 12.3% 266 104 qualified
CH 8.3% 179 102 limited sample
FC 4.0% 87 108 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 4"
Weight223 lb
Debut2022-08-26
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.21
K% Δ+0.087

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.6σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.309
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.296

Cavalli’s wOBA-against sits at 0.309, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.296 — a gap of 0.013, 0.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 172 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching312026-09-18Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/KC tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202619.0% K | 4.23 ERAProjection
2026-04-13 @ PIT4 ER / 2 K1.1 IP
2026-04-07 vs STL1 ER / 3 K4.2 IP
2026-04-01 @ PHI1 ER / 3 K6.0 IP
2026-03-26 @ CHC2 ER / 5 K3.2 IP