Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	483	53	100	9	44	.227	.283	.347	.630
2025	370	52	74	5	49	.236	.339	.347	.686
2026	456	50	95	14	34	.231	.290	.365	.655
4 Seasons	1589	192	320	32	153	.229	.309	.348	.657

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27

23

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

24

Defense4 metrics

57

Speed3 metrics

44

Plate skills10 metrics

53

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27

xwOBA preseason	0.280
xwOBA current pace	0.278
xwOBA rolling p50	0.279
Observed weight	68%

xwOBA

0.257 0.267 0.279 0.290 0.300

wOBA

0.279 0.292 0.307 0.321 0.334

ISO

0.109 0.119 0.131 0.142 0.153

K%

23.6% 24.7% 26.0% 27.2% 28.4%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%3.2%

26

Exit velocity80.9

4

Hard-hit%26.6%

10

xBA0.311

40

xSLG0.456

34

xwOBA0.278

25

BB%6.6%

29 -23 vs proj

Bat speed64.9

7

K%24.3%

43 +16 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-1.9 · SS

2

Arm Strength91.5 · SS

80

Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS

73

Range Runs1.7 · SS

71

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-0.0 · SS

41

SB Success Rate69.7% · SS

25

Sprint Speed28.0 · SS

65

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-27

Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.2% · rebadged research

29

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0% · rebadged research

53

Correct Decisions63.7% · rebadged research

25

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97

31

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.271 · borderline

86

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample

39

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.259 · validated thin sample

91

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.343 · insufficient sample

15

Resists FastballwOBA 0.312 · validated

90

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350 · validated

69

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

José Caballero's production (74) outpaces the tools grade (72) by 3 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Also flagged: Power Efficiency Gap. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low

+9.0° Current 7° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

209 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.1σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.307

xwOBA (deserved)0.278

Caballero’s wOBA sits at 0.307, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.278 — a gap of 0.029, -1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 473 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Giménez, Andrés TOR · L	0.69	Bat speedMax exit velocity	Player · Projection
Altuve, Jose HOU · R	0.61	Max exit velocityGround-ball rate	Player · Projection
Peters, Tristan CWS · L	0.58	Max exit velocitySwing length	Player · Projection
Meidroth, Chase CWS · R	0.55	Barrel ratexwOBA on contact	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	6	2026-09-19	Disciplined swing decisions drove the score

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.286 xwOBA \| 9 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-0
2026-04-17 vs KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| BB, K, SB
2026-04-15 vs LAA0 HR \| 2 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, BB, 2 RBI
2026-04-14 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| K
2026-04-13 vs LAA1 HR \| 2 RBI / 4 Ch \| 1 E	2-5 \| HR, 2B, 2 RBI

Age	30
Height	5' 9"
Weight	190 lb
Debut	2023-04-15

xwOBA Δ	-0.009
wOBA Δ	+0.020

Hitter Projections 20260.286 xwOBA \| 9 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-0
2026-04-17 vs KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| BB, K, SB
2026-04-15 vs LAA0 HR \| 2 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, BB, 2 RBI
2026-04-14 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| K
2026-04-13 vs LAA1 HR \| 2 RBI / 4 Ch \| 1 E	2-5 \| HR, 2B, 2 RBI

José Caballero

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail