Mithrandir Metrics
Player COL Refreshed Sep 28 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / COL

Juan Mejia

Player · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 210 lb · Age 26

Cards
2
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club COL Position -- Roster profile Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025223.96550161.1681.26
2026465.27651470.0661.69
2 Seasons684.6612015131.11341.48
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
22
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
43
Arsenal5 metrics
37
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28
ERA preseason3.93
ERA current pace5.27
ERA rolling p504.70
Observed weight58%
ERA
3.33 3.98 4.70 5.43 6.07
FIP
3.24 3.64 4.08 4.52 4.92
K%
19.0% 20.5% 22.2% 23.9% 25.4%
BB%
9.2% 10.2% 11.3% 12.5% 13.5%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.70
7
ERA5.27
22
BB%12.2%
17 -25 vs proj
K%20.4%
38 -32 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.332
29 -33 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.7%
95 +39 vs proj
Fastball velo96.8
85
Hard-hit allowed39.1%
46
Whiff%22.4%
48 -20 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-28
Fastball Stuff+96
16
Mithrandir Stuff+99
25
Slider Stuff+102
55
Changeup Stuff+100
35
Sinker Stuff+103
57
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mejia, Juan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.332 2026-09-14: 0.3392026-09-18: 0.3342026-09-19: 0.3342026-09-20: 0.3342026-09-21: 0.3292026-09-22: 0.3292026-09-23: 0.3292026-09-24: 0.3292026-09-25: 0.3292026-09-26: 0.3322026-09-27: 0.3322026-09-28: 0.332 2026-09-14 2026-09-28 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 54%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mejia, Juan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mejia, Juan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 54.0%Sweeper: 37.5%Sinker: 4.6%Changeup: 2.1%Slider: 1.9% FF54% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 54%ST 37%SI 5%CH 2%SL 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mejia, Juan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 54% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 96.9 mphFF97 mphSweeper: 37% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 83.9 mphST84 mphSinker: 5% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 96.0 mphSI96 mphChangeup: 2% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 93.2 mphCH93 mphSlider: 2% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.9 mphSL88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.0% 451 96 qualified
SL 42.0% 379 102 qualified
SI 5.2% 47 103 limited sample
CH 2.8% 25 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.08
K% Δ-0.044

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.8σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.355
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.332

Mejia’s wOBA-against sits at 0.355, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.332 — a gap of 0.023, 0.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 69 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching22026-04-164-Seam Fastball played up through FF/ST tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.9% K | 4.19 ERAProjection